9 August 2017


Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my Facebook Post of 1st August Nifty started declining after testing 10137. As visible from the Weekly chart below Nifty took the Resistance of the Weekly Channel. Nifty Formed Shooting star on Weekly and started declining. This is the Initial sign of Trend Reversal.

Nifty started forming Lower Top Lower Bottom on Daily Chart further confirming the Trend Reversal. Nifty broke the Support at 9944, 9927 and closed below 9927. This is further sign of weakness. Currently the supports are at 9868-9836 and 9792. There is Channel and swing low Support at 9792 as visible from the Daily Chart below.

Nifty seem to have completed Wave (I) at 10137. If Nifty breaks the Support at 9792 and sustains below it will be confirmation of Top done at 10137. If Bulls Manage to protect 9792 then Nifty may continue the Uptrend.

Confirmation of medium term Trend Reversal will be only below 9792. Once Nifty starts trading below 9792 and sustains below it we can look for downside targets for Correction in Wave (II). Once below 9792 the next strong Support is at 9448. We can expect decline towards 9440 in August series once Nifty sustains below 9792.

Once Nifty confirms the Trend Reversal it may fall towards 9440, 9270 or 9020 over next 3 months. This Analysis will be true only once Nifty breaks and sustains below 9792. Failure to break 9792 will lead to continuation in Up Trend. 

I will look for alternate count if Nifty breaks and sustains above the Resistance at 9944-9988. Above 9944-9988 we can look for New High towards 10270.

Conclusion :- One needs to look at the Market Behavior near key levels 9792-9836 and 9944-9988 to make their trading decisions.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.