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25 July 2013

INDIAN INDICES

Hi Friends,

Today I'm posting Wave Counts on few Indian Indices.

NIFTY

In my last post I mentioned about possible rise to 6090 till July end. And Nifty indeed achieved 6090. Nifty has retraced 78.6% of June Fall and formed a Evening Star on Daily Chart. Today Nifty gave initial confirmation of Trend Reversal by closing below Up Trend Chanel. Second stage of confirmation will be closing below 5930 i.e. neckline support of the Inverted Head & Shoulder. Once Nifty starts trading below 5930 we may witness huge sell off to 5430 or even lower to 5020 in C leg as per my preferred count (Marked in yellow).

SENSEX

Sensex has retrace more than 90% of June Fall and still haven't breached support of Wedge. This Inter-market Divergence makes me rethink on Nifty. It has support at 19730 which is expected to hold. If breaks above 20350 might head towards 20700.

BANK NIFTY

Currently Oversold and RSI Positive Divergence. Looks like it's forming an Expanded Flat. Might Bounce off the lows in 'c' wave up towards 11800-900. 

BSE AUTO

Expected to remain range bound 10500-11000. And may give Breakdown below 10500.


BSE CAPITAL GOODS

Currently Oversold and RSI Positive Divergence. Looks like in expanded flat. Might Bounce off the lows in 'c' wave up. However over Long Term it might head to 5000. 


BSE METAL

No Respite to Bulls. Currently Oversold and might bounce of the Lows. However, traders shall stay away from Metal Stocks until Index reaches towards 2009 lows of 4000 over next 12-15 months.

FMCG

Only Place to Hide. Index making New Highs week over weeks. However, RSI Negative Divergence suggesting Possible trend change. Investors may get shock in next Wave down.

HEALTHCARE

Yet another Index making New Highs week over weeks. However RSI Negative Divergence suggesting Possible trend change. Investors may get shock in next Wave down.

BSE I.T.

Currently Overbought. Looks to be in Final Leg Up. Extended C might get over near 7350 and then Index is expected to mark serious reversal. Expected to head lower to 6000-4500 over next 15 months.

Note:- With Inter-market Divergences market may have some upside for week or two. However, I would stick to my bearish view over next 15 months.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.