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23 September 2012

NIFTY- TIME TO BE CAUTIOUS

Hi Friends,


NIFTY-DAILY

In our last post we wrote about the target of 5686-5738 in 'c' leg of Wave 3 of the Ending Diagonal on Nifty. Nifty touched 5720 & with this 10% Rally of Sept. is almost done. 

http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/09/nifty-ready-to-zoom.html

So now we suggest everyone to Book Longs on Nifty. As expected Auto, Banks & Metal stocks outperformed in this Rally & Pharma & FMCG Stocks under-performed. All thanks to wisdom of the great R.N. Elliott who discovered the amazing theory of Wave Principle.


NIFTY-HOURLY

On a Daily chart we can clearly see the 5 wave move complete from 5215-5720. We can also see a clear RSI Negative Divergence within 3rd and 5th wave on Hourly chart. Further, on Hourly chart we can see that (v)th of the 5th wave is still missing. So we expect the move towards 5738-5756 in (v)th of the 5th wave on Monday 24th Sept. Once Nifty completes this missing (v)th wave, it will grind lower to 5434 in its 4th wave of the Ending Diagonal in next 10-12 trading sessions.


So lets wait & watch..


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

18 September 2012

CIPLA ELLIOTT WAVE - UPDATE

Hi friends,


CIPLA

In our last post we mentioned about final top in CIPLA near 380 in 5th wave of (c) of Flat in 'B'. The Stock went little above that to 396 to reach its final top in 5th wave of (c) of Flat 'B'. Since it breached above the 380 mark i.e. beyond start of Wave 'A' its surely the case of an Expanded Flat Correction where Wave B often extends beyond start of Wave 'A'. So a minimum 100 points drop is expected in Wave 'C' of Cycle degree Wave 4.. C of Flat is always an Impulse. So an impulsive fall will confirm this wave count.

CIPLA HOURLY

On short term though we still havent got confirmation for 'C' of Flat a clear 5 wave Rally from low of 300-396 is visible. Further, an Ending Diagonal in 5th confirms that Uptrend in Stock is over. We can also see a clear RSI Negative Divergence on hourly chart between wave (iii) & (v). Breach of (ii-iv) line further confirms that Uptrend is over. Further, we can see a clear 5 wave decline from top of 396-357.. I have marked this as wave (i).. And now the stock may correct this fall up-to min 61.8% Retracement to 380 or max 78.6% to 387.. Wave (ii) may take shape of Flat, Traingle, Zigzag or Combination and take more time than wave (i). Wave (ii) generally retraces the most. This is not a buy call but an opportunity for Investors to exit the stock.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

5 September 2012

NIFTY READY TO ZOOM

Hi Friends,

In our last post we were talking about possible Ending Diagonal in Nifty. And it seems like its actually playing out. Though we were looking for Reversal at 5312, we mentioned about more downside to 5215-5245 Gap Area.


NIFTY

With today's low that dip seems over. And 'b' leg of the 3rd Wave looks to be Complex Correction or Diagonal completed at 5233. So Nifty might move in its 'c' leg towards 5610-5686 or higher.

On short term basis 5341-5368 is on cards. Will review there whether 1 more dip to 5221-5202 coming.. However, break above 5401 & 5448 will confirm upside to 5610-5686-5738.. Sept month is generally Bullish and with current set up 10% move is visible on Nifty. Auto, Banks & Metals will lead this Rally. Pharma & FMCG the Star Performers so far will Under-Perform in this Rally.. Trade wisely..


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.