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26 November 2017


Hi Friends,

Its been Long Time I have Posted on Nifty. Last time I was Bearish in August and was Looking for Correction. Nifty remained in Range 10180-9685 until September Expiry. Though there was not much Price wise Damage as I was expecting Nifty did a Time Correction.

Post this Correction Nifty Rallied from 9686 to 10490 till Nov 6th as visible in the above Chart. This Rally seems to be Wave I of Larger Degree Wave (III). Post the Rally to 10490 Nifty Corrected to 10094. It Retrace around 50% of the Previous Rally. This Correction seems to be Wave II and Currently Nifty Seem to have started Rally in Wave III of (III). As long as Nifty Stays above 10370 and breaks 10410 this Analysis would hold True.

As visible from the Weekly Chart Nifty has Strong Channel Resistance near 10540-50. Once Nifty breaks above this Weekly Channel it would be Confirmation of Wave (III). Then we can look for the Target for Wave III of (III) which shall come near 11300 by End Dec 2017 or Mid Jan 2018. 

And as we go on Higher Degree Wave (III) might head towards 13300 in Next 12-15 months. As mentioned in my earlier analysis in Feb 2017 Nifty looks to be in Wave 3 from 7893. As per 261.8% Ratio of Wave 1 the Target for 3rd Wave comes near 13500.

On a Monthly Time-frame Nifty seems to be in Supercycle Degree Wave III which started back in 2001. The 7 fold Rally to 6350 in 2007 looks to be Wave (I) of Supercycle Degree Wave III. There may be Different opinions on the 2008 Correction; but overall 2008-2013 looks to be a Corrective Structure in Cycle Degree Wave (II). As many Sectors and Stocks remained in Correction till August 2013.

The Cycle Degree Wave (III) which seem to have Started at 5119 with NaMo Era has been Unfolding in a series of 1-2 1-2. The Core Economy Sectors like Capital Goods, Metals, Infra, Power, Oil&Gas etc. Bottomed out late in 2016-2017 as Nifty heads in most Powerful Wave (3) of (III) of III.

While 11300-13300 are Short to Medium Term Targets. If the Long Term Wave Count holds to be True Nifty Might Double & even Triple over next 4-6 years. We are probably entering in the Best Time of Stock Market. With lots of Stocks & Sectors breaking out of Long Term Bear Cycle Fortunes can be made in next 4-6 years.

Conclusion:- One may wait for Confirmation of Wave III above 10540-50 to take Long Term Decisions. Short Term Trend is intact until Nifty stays above 10370. While Short Term Trend may change below 10370 medium to Long term Trend will remain intact.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.


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