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31 December 2013

NIFTY - ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE

Hi Frends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty seems to be in Final Z leg of the 2 year long up trend. Nifty seem to have completed Z leg at 6415.
NIFTY
 After testing 6415 Nifty fell sharply towards 6130 in 7 trading sessions. This fall seems to be wave (i) or 'a' of one higher degree. The rise from 6130-6345 looks corrective, & consumed 7 trading sessions & retraced around 78.6% of the fall.  This rise seems to be wave (ii) or b of one higher degree. Break below 6270 would be initial indication of start of next leg down in wave (iii) or 'c' and break below 6190 would further confirm the downside.

Once below 6190 we may expect fall towards 5970-5700. In case of 3rd wave extension Nifty might fall below 5700. As per my preferred count break below 6190 would indicate huge downside back to 5100. Break below 5700 will further confirm it.

Alternatively if one is counting the rise from 5118-6415 as Leading Diagonal; still needs to wait for some corrective fall to 5700 for next leg up in 3rd wave.

I would stick to my long term views. As per my Time Cycle study Nifty is in 7 year long sideways Bear Market and 1 last huge fall is pending before the Bull Run starts in 2015. I would like to review for alternate wave count only if Nifty doesn't fall below 5700 till Feb 2014.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

9 December 2013

NIFTY - EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As I have been mentioning in my posts Nifty seem to be in Huge Ending Structure from Last 2 years from 4531. Currently it seems to be in (Z) wave of this Structure.
NIFTY
In November Nifty fell sharply after testing 6340 levels on Diwali. However, Bulls protected the important support of 5970. As per my reading the sharp rise from 5120 looks like an Ending Diagonal. And Nifty is likely to complete final 'e' leg of this Diagonal near 6460.

Post completion of this Ending Structure we might witness a Huge Downside back to 4500 or lower in a year ahead. Whenever we get the evidence of the end of this move I would be looking for immediate downside to 5970.  If this Pattern is true post completion Nifty might fall sharply to 5090 till End of Jan 2014 or even lower to 4760 till End of March 2014.

Alternatively 1 may call the Rise from 5118-6343 as a Leading Diagonal in Wave 1 of New Bull and The Dip to 5972 as wave 2. So if one who is looking at the rise from 5972 as Wave 3 should be aiming for much higher targets.

However, Wave Analysis of the Nifty-50 Stocks & Other Indices don't support the Idea of the New Bull. We are probably close to End of 2 year Long Up Trend rather than Beginning of New Bull Trend.

I would like to review the alternate structure only if Nifty sustains above 6450-6500 levels on monthly closing basis.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.