25 March 2013


Hi Friends,

In my last post I mentioned about possible decline on Nifty. And indeed Nifty has been sliding down since End Jan 2013. So question here arises is - has Nifty started its Bear Move? We shall get the answer in next few weeks.

As per Traditional TA Uptrend looks over since Nifty has breached the 7 months Upward Channel. And now only corrective pullbacks might be witnessed on the Index. As per my Preferred EW Count too 5 wave sequence looks over at 6112. 

I have been maintaining my stance that Entire Rally from 4531 is part of Corrective Bear Market Rally which is 3 Wave Corrective. And Nifty has indeed followed the guidelines for Corrective Waves as the Rally is Bounded by Channel. So 2013 is likely to see much Larger Decline & Index may breach 2011 low of 4531 by End 2013.

On a Yearly Time Frame entire Rally from 4531 which looks to be (b/x) wave looks complete at 6112.   And the decline from 6112 looks to be a start of Bear. In case of decline in (c) wave it shall develop as an Impulse and in case of (y) wave it may develop as Double or Triple Corrective.

Since The decline from 6112 doesn't look to be an Impulse; its not yet clear whether Market has Started the Bear move in (y) wave or yet to complete (b) wave.

On a Shorter Time Frame a Corrective looks complete at 5632.. Market looks Oversold and there is +ve Divergence on RSI. So Index might be ready to Bounce of the lows.

 Wave Structure -

(A) Assuming that Bear has started - 

In this case Nifty is likely to decline in (y) wave which might develop as Double or Triple Corrective. The decline from 6112-5664 looks to be 'a' wave. And currently Nifty looks to be in 'b' wave which might be developing as an Expanded Flat. Of which move from 5664-5971 looks to be 'a' leg and flat 'b' looks complete at 5632. Now Nifty shall move in 'c' leg Up which shall develop as an Impulse & reach 5970-6030 by April 5th.. Similar pattern was witnessed in End 2010.

(B) Assuming that Nifty is yet to Complete (b) Wave -

In this case Nifty is yet to Complete 5th wave from 4770 & likely to Head to a New High around 6247-89. In this case The Following (c) wave shall develop as an Impulse. In this case decline from 6112 might be a 4th wave which might have developed as 'wxy' Corrective. And Nifty shall head to New High around 6247-89 in 5th wave closer to Higher Boundary of Larger Channel by 21st April.

A move above 5691 shall be initial indication of Trend Change and move above 5792 shall further confirm the start of Short Term Up-Trend.

In any of the above 2 possibilities a larger Decline to 5200-5300 is expected once the Up-Move gets over. Hence Investors shall use this Rally as last chance to liquidate their Investments.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

1 comment: