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21 May 2013

NIFTY & DJIA LONG TERM WAVE COUNT

Hi Friends,

Posting Long Term Wave Counts on Nifty & Dow Jones Industrial Average. The two most Popular Indices Tracked by Many Indian Investors.


NIFTY -

NIFTY

Nifty completed its Cycle Degree Wave 1 in Jan 2008 and has been in consolidation phase since past 5 years. Though currently Nifty is near the All Time Highs from EW perspective the Rallies still look Corrective. The Sharp 2008 Fall has been marked as (W) & 2009-2010 Rally back to 6338 has been marked as (X) Wave. Currently Nifty looks to be in (Y) Wave which might be developing as more complex corrective.

The year long Uptrend which started back in Dec 2011 looks to be in its Final phase. This Wedge Shaped Corrective Pattern has Resistance Near 6300. Also as per Fibonacci Ratios 61.8% Retracement of Y comes near 6300. Post this Huge Sell off might be witnessed on Nifty. So those who are planning to Invest in Equities at Current level shall be careful.

I would like to revise any alternate count only in case Nifty crosses 6358..

DJIA -

DJIA

Dow completed its Super Cycle Degree Wave 5 back in Jan 2000 and has been in consolidation since past 13 years. Though DJIA is at All Time Highs from EW perspective the Rallies still looks Corrective. DJIA looks to be forming Expanding Triangle or Expanded Flat Correction or Double Three.

Rally from March 2009 lows is perfectly channeled corrective & looks to be in it Final phase which has resistance near 15800-16000. Post this Huge Sell off might be witnessed on DJIA. So those who are planning to Invest in Equities at Current level shall be careful.

I would like to revise any alternate count only in case DJIA crosses 16000..


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

10 May 2013

NIFTY, BANK NIFTY & FEW STOCKS

Hi Friends,

In my last post I mentioned that move above 6030 will invalidate the count & I will look for alternate counts. So now with this steep Rally Nifty has opened up possibility of 1 more New High to 6289. This Looks to be last leg of the Rally which started back in Dec 2011. The move from 4531 looks to be developing as Contracting Triangle which has Higher side Resistance at 6300 odd levels..


NIFTY

The move from 5477 looks to be final 'E' or Z leg of this move. In case of 'E' it might be developing as 'abc' of which 'a' looks over at 6084 & we might witness some correction in 'b' to 5930-5870. However this Rally looks similar to Jan 2012, Steep Up Move. So until Nifty doesn't break the Rising Channel we may not witness Sizable Correction. And hence the alternate 'Z' leg might be developing as Triple Zigzag which would achieve 6289 without any Correction.


BANK NIFTY


BANK NIFTY

Pattern on Bank Nifty looks similar to Nifty a Contracting Triangle or Diagonal with Waves Overlapping. It Might Trade in range of 12100-12800 for few days & move Higher to 13300-500 in it's Final leg.


AXIS BANK


AXIS BANK

Axis Bank reflecting similar pattern to Bank Nifty a Contracting Triangle or Diagonal with Waves Overlapping. It Might Trade in range of 1400-1490 for few days & move Higher to 1590 in it's Final leg.


HDFC BANK


HDFC BANK

HDFC Bank has a clear 5 wave move from 400.. This move might have been over at 700. Currently there is no evidence & 5th might extend towards the Higher End of Rising Channel. But Bulls need to be careful now. Move Below 668 will Indicate Short Term Trend Change & move below The Rising Channel will open Huge Downside.


HDFC LTD


HDFC LTD

HDFC LTD too reflect a clear 5 wave move from 600.. This move might have been over at 900. Currently there is no evidence & 5th might extend towards the Higher End of Rising Channel. But Bulls need to be careful now. Move Below 841 will Indicate Short Term Trend Change & move below The Rising Channel will open Huge Downside.



Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.