Follow by Email

24 June 2012

NIFTY READY TO FLY SKY HIGH

Hi Friends,


After this Roller Coaster Ride for about 7 Trading Sessions as expected Nifty is again ready to Fly Sky High.


As per our earlier view Nifty completed its 1st leg of Rally at 5124. But later we shifted it towards 5145as that's the only best alternative available. And then Nifty started correcting the Gains in a Roller Coaster Ride as was posted here.


http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/06/nifty-roller-coaster-week-ahead.html


Currently we have 2 alternate Wave Counts.
NIFTY


1. Nifty might still be in its B leg of the Final C of TZZ the Complex Corrective which started in Nov 2010.
After the initial leg 'a' which terminated at 5145 Gaining almost 375 points over 8 Trading Sessions, Nifty started Correcting the Gains in a triangle in 'b' leg which might have been over at 5094. And now it might have started moving upwards in its 'c' leg towards 5365-5435.
NIFTY


2. Nifty might have completed its Complex Correction in Wave A at 5431 & now heading up in its B leg towards 5738-5842. 'a=c' gives minimum target of 5738. But we might keep the options open for 'c' Extension or Failure as the Market Unfolds its legs.


Both the above said views are subject to holding of Friday's Low of 5094 & most importantly 5040. And if this Rally Kick Starts from Monday breaking 5184, no one will be able to Turn Nifty Down before 6th July.




So lets Wait & Watch..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit

17 June 2012

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,


There is lot of Curiosity & Confusion about the Greece Election & RBI Policy on Monday.
But with Help of Elliott Wave Principle nothing to worry about the future Direction of Market.
NIFTY
As per our Preferred Count Nifty has Completed its Wave 'a' & 'b' of major B and now it might have started its  upward move towards 5345-5365 in wave 'c'.


Still one must wait till break above 5165. The Correction in wave 'b' may or may not be over yet. I'm keeping the option of Flat correction in wave 'b' open. In that case maximum correction till 4965 can be expected. But this dip would be good buying opportunity for higher targets of 5345-5365. In case Nifty breaks above 5165 before any correction the possibility of Flat will be completely ruled out.


Currently we are looking towards the target of 5345-5365 but cannot rule out wave extension to 5435 also. As per our alternate Count we are looking for a target above previous top of 5630.




So lets wait & watch.


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

11 June 2012

NIFTY - ROLLER COASTER WEEK AHEAD

Hi Friends,


After this super 300+ points move in just 1 Trading Week, Nifty is likely to take its participants for a Roller Coaster Ride In this Coming Week. 
NIFTY
As per our preferred Wave Count, Current up-move may get arrested at 5124-5136 and Nifty may start Retracing the Gains of this Rally. Once this Clear Impulse move in 'a' leg gets over 'b' leg is most likely to take its participants for a Roller Coaster Ride In this Coming Week.


So its better to be a spectator to this Tennis Match between Bulls and Bears within the Range of 4945-5135 (+/- 30 points). The Range may expand as 'b' leg is most likely to take the shape of Expanding Triangle.


So the key for next week is to remain on sidelines and wait for clear Trending Signal. Once this Tennis Match gets over Nifty would Resume its Upward Journey towards 5350-5400 in 'c' leg. Those who missed this Rally can Buy on Dip to 4945.




So lets Wait & Watch




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

5 June 2012

WILL NIFTY REPEAT THE HISTORY?

Hi Friends,


Nifty has been sliding continuously since last few weeks and there is no respite for Bulls.


Though It witnessed intermediate Relief Rallies; It is still missing Long Haul of Bull.


But when this correction will End?


Well as the logic says in Adversity lies Opportunity. 


Currencies Globally have already started Reversing, Indices have yet to begin.
NIFTY
On Daily Chart Nifty managed to give closing above 4830 & 5 wave decline in the C leg Looks Complete. Also We have Positive Divergence On RSI. So today's low Might be the Bottom for Nifty. But on Intra-day Chart 5 wave decline still appears incomplete. And 1 last leg Down in Panic Sell Off may take Nifty lower to 4729 or 4703.


VIX Also Reaching near 30. So I'm awaiting such Panic Sell Off & VIX to touch 30 levels.
INDIA VIX
Once this Downward Correction gets over Nifty is likely to retrace up to 61.8% to 78.6% of the Entire Fall.
NIFTY


So lets Wait & Watch.


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.



4 June 2012

CURRENCY UPDATE

Hi Friends,

It is generally observed that Currency Movement gives Early Indication of Equity Market Direction.

Here are some Currency Charts which are indicating a short term Reversal on the cards.
DOLLAR INDEX
Lets 1st look at the Dollar Index Chart which is villain for all the equities, commodities & other currencies with which it is paired. The Dollar Index which has Long way to go to 89-90 has completed its 5 Wave Advance and is setting up for Reversal in Global Equities along with itself. It could retrace back to 61.8% of this advance to 80.49.
EUR/USD
 Now lets look at this Other Equally Important Global Currency which is paired with Dollar. The EUR/USD seem to have completed its 5 wave decline & is setting up for Pull Back Rally up to 1.29 i.e. 61.8% of this decline.

Finally lets look at this USD/INR chart. While INR making New Low Nifty has not yet made the New Low. But with Friday's turmoil in Global Markets Nifty is likely to finally make New Low around 4731 before it could Reverse.
USD/INR
Well this USD/INR Chart also seem to have completed 5 Wave Advance and is setting up for a Reversal. It could Retrace back to 52.85 or 51.95.

Now with the Currencies Signaling Reversal; Relief Rallies in Equities across the Globe are also due on the Cards.

So let’s Wait & Watch


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.


GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

Hi Friends,



Most Of the Global Markets are about to Complete 5 Wave Decline & are Set to Head Up in a Pull Back Rally. Generally the 1st 5 wave decline is retraced the most and traps many Bulls.

DJIA
 Dow Jones & S&p 500 have now Similar counting & would complete 5 Wave Decline in Day or 2.


S&P500
CAC 40
CAC 40 is also About to complete its 5 wave decline & as soon as it finishes 5 wave decline it would start inching upwards in wave 2 of the 3rd.


DAX
Germany DAX is in its 5th wave which appears to be a Ending Diagonal where (e) leg often overshoots out of te falling wedge line.
FTSE 100
FTSE 100 also on similar line to complete its 5 wave decline.


As most of the Global markets including Italy, Spain, Switzerland are about to complete 5 Wave decline a Pull Back rally is Due Across the Global Equity Indices.


But remember this is just a Pull Back Rally & coming months will be Bloody Red.


So lets Wait & Watch.


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.