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28 April 2014


Hi Friends,

Lets look at development on NIFTY & USD-INR Charts.


Nifty tested 6870 and closed near 6780 giving a Shooting Star Formation on Weekly Chart. With Multiple Negative Divergence on RSI on Daily Chart. Which could be the sing of short term Trend Reversal.
As mentioned in my previous post currently there are two alternatives open.

1) The rise from 5933 looks Impulsive and could be part of 3rd wave if we consider the move from 5118-6415 as Leading Diagonal. That means Nifty completed the correction in contracting triangle after 6 years consolidation and we are starting a New Bull Market which could take Nifty to uncharted territory.

2) Another alternative of this rise being a part of the corrective wave from 4531 over last 3 years as I have been always mentioning in all my previous posts.

Currently Index is overbought and some correction looks on cards. Faster retracement below 6650 would drag nifty lower to 6570-6470. After which Rally may resume in case of New Bull Market. In case of an Impulse the correction should not go below 6415-6355. Breach of these levels would invalidate the assumption of an Impulse and New Bull Market.

USD-INR is in a Long Term Up Trend. USD-INR has weekly Channel support near 59-60 which is unlikely to break. Currently it seem to have completed correction in Wave (iv). With US Dollar Index turning up Rupee is expected to weaken taking USD-INR Higher in (V)th Wave Up. Breakout above 63 would be indication of start of (v)th Wave. Wave (v) would take USD-INR towards 74-75 in next few months or perhaps in case of extension much Higher to 90 in a year ahead.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.