NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE

Hi Friends,

Its been long I have not posted my view on Nifty. But the patterns which are developing on Nifty could not resist me for posting the view.

With this Spinning Top on Nifty short term reversal is on the cards. We can also see volumes are very low throughout this rally from 5140-5380. Which is another indication of lack of buying interest.

With this Island Reversal pattern Nifty may open Gap Down on Monday and head down towards 5220 where it will take support for time being. If it breaks below 5220 it will head to 5140 where there are cluster of supports where one would like to review whether it is heading back to 5250 or sliding towards 5070 amid Global Volatility.

NIFTY

Wave count wise nothing changed. I'm again going with my preferred count of complex corrective. While most Ellioticions believe that the Complex corrective was over at 4531, I'm still giving it a possibility of Expended Flat for this Last leg. So currently Nifty might be heading down in this Final C leg of which the dangerous wave 3 has started and is subdividing into I-II. We can further see that Nifty is sliding in channel which further gives me the confidence on the preferred wave count.

April is very crucial month for the long term direction of the Market and is lined up with lots of events viz-a-viz. IIP Data, Inflation Nos., RBI Monetary Policy Review, Quarterly Results & Second Budget Session with eyes on most controversial issue of GAAR.

On monthly trading basis Nifty has so far been able to trade above the Year Long Trend Channel; but with that Hanging Man kind of Candle in Feb & Doji in March, closing of April is most important. In April if Nifty closes below that Trend Channel and most importantly below 5000, I will stick my neck out n say Nifty may form new Low.

As of now its not worth predicting some random nos. and I'll stick to discipline with short term targets. So currently I'm looking at 5220 as immediate support and at 5140 will review the next course of action.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit

WARNING BELLS RINGING ON DOW JONES.

Hi Friends,


With the breakdown from this Terminal Triangle in Wave 5 of C Warning Bells are ringing on Dow Jones.


The Day it Closes Below 13K all the Bullish Bets in this World will be off.


We can clearly Identify this Ending Diagonal or Terminal Triangle in Wave 5 of C with complete overlapping by Waves (a,b,c,d,e). This is Vary Dangerous pattern for Bulls.

DJIA Dialy

Further this Rising Wadge on Dow Jones can take it to minimum 11500. We can Also see a clear RSI Negative Divergence on DJIA weekly chart and declining volumes on rally which is clear indication of losing momentum.


Well I have two alternate counts on Dow Jones.


As per my 1st Alternate taking this high of 13300 as wave A; the impending wave B would take it down to near 11500 level which is also the Rising Wadge target.

DJIA Weekly

But Lets look at this second alternate of an Expanded Flat. Taking the High of 13300 as Wave B of an Expanded Flat the Impending Wave C can take DJIA to as low as 9550.

DJIA Weekly

As of now I'm going with this second alternative which is my preferred count. But the mode of the forthcoming fall will lead us whether to choose which 1 of these two.


Only in case DJIA goes above this high of 13300 we need to reconsider these alternatives as then it would be something else.


Thanks & Regards


Harsh Dixit