IS NIFTY HEADING TO 5654?

Hi Friends,


Nifty has been correcting ever since it reached our target of 5345 on July 10th. 

NIFTY

The Current Fall appears to be non-directional move. As per a=c exact target of 5076 is done for wave 2 & this correction seems over at today's low.


Its too early too conclude that wave 2 has ended today. The Confirmation for start of 3rd wave will be above 5221 & most importantly above 5301. A Faster Retracement of the Falling Segment would confirm the start of wave 3. So if Nifty manages to cross 5301 in next 4-5 trading session we can expect a move towards 5654 with minor hurdles at 5378 & 5481. 

NIFTY

As per our preferred count :-


Wave 1 = 4770.35-5348.55 = 578.20 points (4th June - 10th July = 36 Days)


Wave 2 = 5348.55-5076.60 = 271.95 points (10th July - 25th July = 15 Days)


Wave 3 = 5076.60 + 578.20 = 5654.80 


In case of time Equality Wave 3 shall be reached till 30th August. While in case of overshoot in 3rd it maybe reached in 0.618 time i.e. till 16th August.


The Above view will hold true till nifty hold 5094 & most importantly 5015. Below 5015 we will be forced to end the 'C' of one larger Degree B at 5348.55. (Case of C Failure). In this case we believe that Nifty will break below yearly lows.


But as of Now we are Bullish as Currencies also Suggesting big Jump in EUR/USD to 1.29 & Correction in Dollar Index to 81.25 & USD/INR to 52.90.


So lets wait & watch.


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,


In the last post we were thinking about Nifty top around 5334. Well the question still remains unanswered. Nifty has till now managed to hold the Support of 5221. And the recent Down Move looks to be the Flat Correction.

NIFTY

1. As per our 1st alternative Nifty might have Topped Out at Wednesday's High of 5336.


2. Or as per 2nd alternative it has still further room to go to either 5481 or to 5738.


a. The current down move might be the Expanded Flat Correction in wave 4.  or


b. It might be Flat Correction in Wave (ii) of Extended 3rd Wave.


In Case of (a) the 5th would Terminate at 5481. And in case of (b) Wave 3 might extend till 5651 & 5th may reach our expected target of 5738.


So now a move above 5286-5334 might take Nifty towards 5481 where we would like to review the next course of action. Or A move below 5196 can take Nifty Down to 5051.


As of now we are still Bullish & aiming for minimum target of 5481.


So lets wait & watch..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

HAS NIFTY TOPPED OUT?

Hi Friends,


While Most of the Analyst believe that India is back in Bull. We still believe that its not the Bull Market but just Bear Market Rally. But has this Rally Fizzled out?


Well the Corrective Advances all over the Globe seems over and the Major Equity Indices across the Globe including  CAC, DAX, FTSE, DJIA & SPX are ready Tumble from the Sky.


But its still difficult to say whether Nifty has already Topped out?  It is not easy to catch each & every top & bottom. So now 1 must be ready to act as Nifty unfolds.

NIFTY

1. As per our 1st alternate we were looking for 5385-5435 as the termination point for this Rally but as the case may be now it looks like failure of 'c' of B. So the 5th within 'c' of B might have truncated at 5333. Or there might be some up stream left till 5344..

NIFTY

2. As per our 2nd alternative the Rally might continue & cross previous top at 5630 to Trap the Bulls. In This case we would look at 5738 as the termination point for this rally.


But as the Global Counterpart Indices are looking vulnerable and ready to tumble from the Sky the 2nd alternative looks little difficult.


So now the key is to Ride the Train whichever way it takes Turn.. Above 5344 there is still some room for 5385-5435. But Below 5286 its straight decline to 5221 & below that Nifty might Slide to 5184-5148..


But the key for Direction of the Major Trend is in two alternative nos 5145-5435. Weekly closing above 5435 would indicate a New High on Nifty while Weekly closing below 5145 would be indication of New Low on Nifty.


So lets wait & watch..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY ROCKET FINALLY KICK STARTED

Hi Friends,


After Consolidating for almost 10 trading session Nifty Finally Broke out of the Triangular Corrective pattern on this Friday. For others this move might have came as surprise but we had already posted our view for this upward break in last week.


http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/06/nifty-ready-to-fly-sky-high_24.html


Currently there is no change in the view and we are still going with the two alternative.


1. Looking for 5385-5435 as the Initial Hurdle for this Rally to Fizzle out in B of TZZ of the Complex Corrective which started in Nov 2010.

NIFTY

2. The Rally to Continue & Cross Previous Top at 5630 to Trap the Bulls. In this case we would look at 5738 as the Termination Point for this Rally in 'c' leg of the B of C of Zigzag. But we might keep the options open for 'c' Extension or Failure.


Currently the 2nd alternative of 5738 looks more likely.


Currently Nifty might come down in an attempt to Fill the Gap created on Friday. Which is still unlikely in our view as 5221 holds Strong Support & any dip would be good Buying Opportunity for a target of 5385-5435.


So lets wait & watch..




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.