NIFTY SHORT TERM UPDATE

Hi Friends,

In my last post I mentioned that Nifty needs to cross 5869 to confirm Trend Reversal and Failure to hold 5730 will add more pressure on Nifty & it may Slide to 5630.. Nifty tested 5864 & broke below 5730 Leading to Panic Sell Off to 5567..

NIFTY - Daily

Structurally current Fall from 6229 looks to be developing as a Triple Zigzag. Where Z achieved price equality with W & might have been complete at 5567. A Faster Retracement above 5755-70 would be indication of Trend Reversal. However, Failure to hold 5567 will open up more Downside to 5525-5480..

Currently Market  is Oversold & there is +ve Divergence on RSI. So there is higher probability of likely Trend Reversal.. Once Nifty starts trading above 5755-70 we may expect move up to 5970-6045-6090.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY LONG TERM COUNT

Hi Friends,

In my last post I was expecting a Rally from 5830-50 to New High 6300. However, Market has Invalidated that Analysis as Nifty has breached below 61.8% of the Apr-May Rally.. So looking at the Magnitude of this Fall, I have changed my view now. In my view Nifty seem to have already made it's Long Term Top at 6229 & no New High will be seen in 2013 again.

NIFTY - Weekly

As discussed the entire Rally from 4531 is a Corrective Pullback of the 2011 Fall. The Entire 2011 Fall was 13 months Channeled Corrective Action. As against this the Rally consumed around 17 months and Retraced 94% of 2011 Fall. Which is considered as Slow Retracement with Waves Overlapping. As per Traditional Technical Analysis it is Rising Wedge On Nifty. This Pattern has Highly Bearish Implication for the year ahead. In my view Nifty will Retest 4500 or may even Fall sub 4000 in Next 15-20 months. I believe this Entire Fall may Develop as an Impulse or Zigzag Corrective. As projected in the above Chart.

For short term it appears to be Island Reversal on Nifty. However, there is not enough evidence for Trend Reversal.

NIFTY - Daily

(I) For Short term Nifty needs to break above 5869 to confirm Trend Reversal. If Nifty manages to hold 5738-54 & break 5869 we can Expect move towards 6088 followed by larger Fall to 5370 later..  And so on..(This will be similar to 2011 Pattern)

(II) Failure to hold 5730 will add more pressure on Nifty and it is likely to head lower to 5645-5630.. Followed by Bounce back to 5820-50 and then Fall back to 5340.. And so on..

When Mkt gives an obvious message, you must listen to it. Entire Rally from 4531 is Corrective Rally which will be followed by Larger Fall. Those who understand Elliott Wave can understand the Implication of this Pattern..

Rest of 2013 looks much more Bearish.. And hence I would like to maintain my Bearish stance for 2013. 

Will keep posting on short Term moves from time to time..

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

In my last post I mentioned about Nifty being in its Final Stage of Uptrend from 4531 and has resistance near 6300. Nifty is sliding since the level of 6229. I'm expecting a much Larger Fall back to 4500 or lower levels in next 15-20 months. However, there is no clear evidence of beginning of that Larger Fall.

On short term the Current Fall from 6229 still looks to be a Correction of the Last Rally from 5477-6229. As per my preferred Count The Rally from 5477-6229 looks to be just 'a' leg of the Z Wave from 5477. And currently Nifty is Retracing the Rally in 'b' leg which might be near its completion.

We can clearly see a Falling Wedge on Nifty which has Bullish Implication on Breakout. Despite the Prices making Lower Lows, RSI is Diverging and making Higher Lows. So the Momentum on Sell side is Declining and also the Volume. Nifty has support in range of 5840-5850. So Nifty may take support in this Range and start moving Higher in 'c' leg of Z Wave in a Day or Two. 

Nifty has Initial Hurdles at 5955-6015. Once above these Initial Hurdles Nifty may head up-to 6300. As a Conservative Trader 1 may wait for Falling Wedge Breakout to initiate Long Trade on Nifty.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.