NIFTY- IS IT A NEW BULL OR ON THE VERGE OF ENTERING NEW BEAR?

Hi Friends,

Nifty has given a Fast and Furious Rally from the low of 5118. Within 1.5 months Index has gained more than 20%. Index has reached near the Life Time High and the consensus is that this is a start of New Bull. Not only retail but Few Analysts have started believing in New Bull and postulating a Target of 7300-7800-8400 on Nifty in 2 years..

But are we really entering a New Bull? My Chart reading don't support any evidence of New Bull. Before entering a New Bull there is always some consolidation for 3-6 months. However no such consolidation was visible near 5118. Instead there are signs of distribution near 6200.

NIFTY

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty seem to be in Huge Ending Structure from Last 2 years from 4531. Whether Ending Diagonal or Complex Correction the labels don't matter until we know its just a Corrective Rally in (E) or (Z) wave of this Structure. And this Rally is about to die.

As per my reading Nifty seem to be in 'c' leg of this Final (E) or (Z) wave which might end near 6237-6256-6282. And we might see a move down to 6033-5981 in next few trading sessions in 'd' leg.  If Nifty holds the support near 5981-6033 we might see another move in'e' leg to 6319-6334 till Nov 1st week. This final (E) or (Z) might be developing as an Ending Diagonal itself. And as per seasonality Market is expected to remain Up till Diwali.

The upside from here looks very limited and shall be used to exit longs. Strictly avoid fresh longs at current levels. Post completion of the Ending Structure we might witness a huge down side back to 4500 or lower in a year ahead. Whenever we get the evidence of the end of this move I would be looking for immediate downside to 4900-5000 till Jan 2014.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

COMMODITIES

Hi Friends,

Today I'm posting my EW Counting on some Global Commodities.

CRUDE MCX

CRUDE MCX

MCX Crude has been consistently in uptrend since early 2009. It made all time high near Rs.7800 in Aug 2013. However, from EW perspective this entire rally looks corrective move. This entire move looks to be a Expanded Flat (B) wave which looks complete near Rs.7800. An Impulsive Fall in Flat (C) could take CRUDE back to 2009 lows near Rs.2000. 

CRUDE WTI

WTI CRUDE

WTI Crude has been consistently in uptrend since early 2009. However, from EW perspective this entire rally looks corrective move. This entire move looks to be a (B) wave which still has upside near $115. An Impulsive Fall in (C) could take CRUDE back to 2009 lows near $35.

GOLD MCX

GOLD MCX

MCX Gold has been consistently in uptrend over past few years. It seems to be in its Extended 3rd wave. Currently it seems to be in (v)th of 3rd which might be extending. The downside looks limited to Rs.27000. Post this correction Gold is likely to resume the uptrend and head towards Rs.40000 in next 2 years.

GOLD USD

GOLD-USD

Gold-USD has been consistently in downtrend ever since it made a top in (V)th wave near $1920 in Sept 2011. Currently it seems to be in complex correction or triple zigzag of which x seems to be in play. This corrective up move in x wave might take Gold to $1500. Post completion a move in Z wave can take Gold near $1030 or worst case towards wave (IV) low near $730.

SILVER MCX

SILVER MCX

MCX Silver seem to have completed the huge correction in Wave 4 near Rs.38500 in June 2013. With the sharp up move it seem to have resumed the uptrend in 5th wave which might be extending. The downside looks limited to Rs.45000. Post this correction Silver is likely to resume the uptrend and head towards Rs.80000 and higher to Rs.1,00,000 in next 3-4 years.

SILVER USD

SILVER-USD

Silver-USD has been consistently in downtrend ever since it made a top in (V)th wave near $50 in Apr 2011. Currently it seems to be in complex correction or triple zigzag of which x seems to be in play. This corrective up move in x wave might take Silver to $27. Post completion a move in Z wave can take Silver near $12 or worst case towards wave (IV) low near $8.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.