NIFTY - ENTERING INTO THE BEST TIME OF STOCK MARKET

Hi Friends,

Its been Long Time I have Posted on Nifty. Last time I was Bearish in August and was Looking for Correction. Nifty remained in Range 10180-9685 until September Expiry. Though there was not much Price wise Damage as I was expecting Nifty did a Time Correction.

Post this Correction Nifty Rallied from 9686 to 10490 till Nov 6th as visible in the above Chart. This Rally seems to be Wave I of Larger Degree Wave (III). Post the Rally to 10490 Nifty Corrected to 10094. It Retrace around 50% of the Previous Rally. This Correction seems to be Wave II and Currently Nifty Seem to have started Rally in Wave III of (III). As long as Nifty Stays above 10370 and breaks 10410 this Analysis would hold True.

As visible from the Weekly Chart Nifty has Strong Channel Resistance near 10540-50. Once Nifty breaks above this Weekly Channel it would be Confirmation of Wave (III). Then we can look for the Target for Wave III of (III) which shall come near 11300 by End Dec 2017 or Mid Jan 2018. 

And as we go on Higher Degree Wave (III) might head towards 13300 in Next 12-15 months. As mentioned in my earlier analysis in Feb 2017 Nifty looks to be in Wave 3 from 7893. As per 261.8% Ratio of Wave 1 the Target for 3rd Wave comes near 13500.

On a Monthly Time-frame Nifty seems to be in Supercycle Degree Wave III which started back in 2001. The 7 fold Rally to 6350 in 2007 looks to be Wave (I) of Supercycle Degree Wave III. There may be Different opinions on the 2008 Correction; but overall 2008-2013 looks to be a Corrective Structure in Cycle Degree Wave (II). As many Sectors and Stocks remained in Correction till August 2013.

The Cycle Degree Wave (III) which seem to have Started at 5119 with NaMo Era has been Unfolding in a series of 1-2 1-2. The Core Economy Sectors like Capital Goods, Metals, Infra, Power, Oil&Gas etc. Bottomed out late in 2016-2017 as Nifty heads in most Powerful Wave (3) of (III) of III.

While 11300-13300 are Short to Medium Term Targets. If the Long Term Wave Count holds to be True Nifty Might Double & even Triple over next 4-6 years. We are probably entering in the Best Time of Stock Market. With lots of Stocks & Sectors breaking out of Long Term Bear Cycle Fortunes can be made in next 4-6 years.

Conclusion:- One may wait for Confirmation of Wave III above 10540-50 to take Long Term Decisions. Short Term Trend is intact until Nifty stays above 10370. While Short Term Trend may change below 10370 medium to Long term Trend will remain intact.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

HOW I MADE OVER 400% RETURN IN JM FINANCIAL IN ABOUT 1.5 YEARS USING ELLIOTT WAVES

Hi Friends,

While I have been always posting all the time about what's in store for Markets ahead. Today I'm writing about how I made Money using Elliott Waves.

Yes! You are reading it Right. I made over 400% Return in JM Financial in about 1.5 years using Elliott Wave Analysis. 

Identification of Bull Market:-

JM Financial was in Downtrend since 2008-2012. It finally broke out of the Downtrend in May 2013 as visible from the above Chart. It tried to retest the Breakout and Finally closed above 21 in Oct 2013 to Confirm End of Long Term Bear Market. Once the Bull Market was Identified next step was to decide Entry Point which shall give Better Risk Reward.

Analysis Supporting Decision to Buy near 34:-

While Nifty was in Bear Cycle in 2015 I was closely watching JM Financial for Prospective Long Entry. After Identifying 3 Waves Up move in JM Financial the Correction in 4th Wave shall be the Ideal Entry for Long. 

How much Down the Correction can go?

As per the Guidelines of the Wave Principle the Correction can go upto the low of wave (iv) of one lower Degree. JM Financial was in Downtrend Channel in 2015. JM Financial took Support near 34 which is the low of Wave (iv) of Wave 3. Which also coincides with 61.8% Retracement of the Rally in 3rd Wave. Also there was a Trend Channel Support near 34 and RSI was  giving Positive Divergence. So based on all these Parameters I took the decision to Buy JM Financial near 34 in Feb 2016.
How Far Bull Market can Go?

I took preemptive Long Trade near 34 based on Signals, however actual Trend Reversal was Confirmed in May 2016 post Breakout of Downtrend Channel. Now the question arises -

Where to Book Profits?

As per Elliott Wave guidelines 5th Wave Moves in Proportion to the Length of Wave 1 through Wave 3. As visible from the above Chart JM Financial moved almost 3.618 times the length of Wave 1 through Wave 3. Though Wave 5 is still not over, it has produced very High Returns in about 1.5 years. Going forward it may not have much Room to Scale Higher in terms of Percentages. There was RSI Negative Divergence on Weekly Chart & it formed a Shooting Star Candlestick which was Sign of Trend Reversal. Hence I decided to Book over 400% Return near 175 in JM Financial in Oct 2017.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.