CIPLA ELLIOTT WAVE

Hi Friends,

It is very interesting to see when Market is distributing different stocks at different time. Time Cycle wise Pharma stocks are the Late Movers in Market & generally form Right Shoulder of the Market Head & Shoulder.

CIPLA

Current advance on CIPLA looks to be nothing but a corrective advance in (c) leg of the 'B' of Flat. CIPLA currently looks to be in Cycle Degree 4th Wave Corrective which is a large Fractal & might be developing as Flat Corrective.

A 3 wave move from 380-275 is marked as 'A' leg & Currently its moving in another 3 wave move up in 'B' leg. The 5th of (c) shall take some more time till mid Sept. to reach 370-380 area. Once 'B' leg is over the Stock may start drifting lower in its 'C' leg of Flat towards 275-250.

Currently we are examining this preferred Count of Flat in 4th Wave. In case of Flat C shall be a Clear 5 Wave Move Down & may take lesser time than A & B. However, we would consider the alternative of Zigzag as CIPLA starts Drifting lower towards 275 & internal legs unfold.


So strategy for Investors is to exit the longs as stock moves up.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

In our last post we were examining the possibility of two alternate wave counts:-
1. Zigzag in B
2. Triangle in B

Since the move from 5032 to 5400 is clear 5 wave Rally possibility of Triangle is now being ruled out.

So Nifty might be forming a Zigzag in "B" of which 'A' was over at 5499 & 'B' at 4770. Currently Nifty is in 'C' leg which might be developing as an Ending Diagonal.

NIFTY

The Rally from 5032-5400 looks to be 'a' leg of the 'C' of Ending Diagonal a Five-3 Structure.
Nifty is just closing on the edge of this Rising Channel. All longs now need to be liquidated. And a possible trade here is to remain short with stop of 5400. Fresh longs need to taken only above 5400 or after meaningful correction.

Nifty might now trade within the range of 5300-5400 for 3-4 days just like it remained Range-Bound in June after completing 'a' leg of the 'A' of Ending Diagonal.

The immediate support is placed at 5320-5330 below which Nifty may grind lower to 5289-5260. At most it may try to fill the Gap at 5246. But we still believe in a Range-Bound Price Action a Time wise Correction than much of a Price Damage..


So lets Wait & watch..

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

TIME TO BE CAUTIOUS

Hi Friends,

In our last update we projected this move towards 5650. So far Nifty has been moving nicely in a Up Trend Channel. We almost captured a nice 300+ points move from 5040 levels. Now its time to be little cautious.

One thing is now confirmed that we are actually in 'B' leg up of the larger Zigzag Corrective in major "C" which started in Nov. 2010. Of which 'A' leg was a Leading Diagonal or Complex Corrective. By Elliott Wave logic 'B' can either be Zigzag, Flat, Triangle or Combination. Looking at the current structure possibility of Flat is ruled out.

So there are now tow alternatives coming up:-

NIFTY - ZIGZAG

1. As per our preferred Count Nifty is in C leg of 'B' leg up which is developing as Zigzag. Though we were initially thinking C to develop as an Impulse the internal structure is not clearly Impulsive within 1st leg up. So C might be developing as an Ending Diagonal. Where all 5 legs are 3 legged structure. So it would be Aproriate to take June-July Rally as A leg & the move towards 5032 as B leg of the Diagonal. Currently Nifty is in C leg which could reach up to 5610 or higher. But for this we need confirmation above 5378 and then above 5481..

NIFTY - TRIANGLE

2. As per the next best alternative 'B' leg might be developing as a Triangle where all 5 legs are 3 legged structure. As per this alternative Nifty is in D leg of the Triangle which is developing as an Expanded Flat. A move below 5286 & further below 5261 can take Nifty to 5060 or lower to 4980 in D leg of the Triangle. Since the move in last 2 days is not clear Impulse Nifty can retest 5378 area before sliding down.

We are still going with our preferred Count and aiming for 5600+ for 3rd leg of the C of B in Zigzag. But we are cautious and all longs are to be kept with stop loss of 5280-5290.. We would go short below 5280 & add  more below 5260..


So lets wait & watch..

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.