NIFTY - Budget Rally Or Long Term Bottom??

Hi Friends,

In my previous post I mentioned about possible decline in Nifty to 7119 and lower. As mentioned Nifty indeed declined in 'Y' wave of the complex correction to 6869.

NIFTY

After testing 6869 Nifty  recovered and formed Hammer candlestick pattern; which is a sign of Reversal. Nifty may have formed a Short term Bottom and a Fast & Furious Budget Rally looks on cards. If Bulls manage to cross 7191-7243 Nifty may bounce to 7554, 7604. Failure to cross 7243 may indicate one more down leg to 6839. However, downside looks limited. And a Strong Rally to 7500+ looks very likely.

The major question which arises to everyone's mind is "Whether Nifty is Forming a Long Term Bottom and the Bear Market is Over?" Currently we don't have a definite answer; however one can start accumulating Stocks now for better returns over next 2-3 years. We can say the Bear Market is over once Nifty Decisively Breaks Resistance near 7980.

Post the Budget Rally Nifty may decline again in it's final leg of Correction and test 6697, 6647 in April 2016. We need to watch price action near 7604 very carefully.

One may start accumulating Stocks now and Build a Portfolio during Feb to April 2016. It's a Once in Lifetime Opportunity to Invest in Equities. A Mother of Bull Markets is on it's way. So start Investing now. 


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY - EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

In my previous post I mentioned about Santa Claus Rally on Nifty. As mentioned Nifty indeed gave a Santa Claus Rally in 'X' wave of the complex correction to 7972 in Dec 2015.

NIFTY

However 'X' wave seem to have truncated and complete at 7972. As expected Nifty started declining after completion of 'X' wave.

Today after testing 7425 Nifty gave a vertical rise and closed positive. Nifty formed a long legged Doji; which is a sign of reversal. Nifty may bounce to 7633, 7699 or 7721 in next 4-5 days. Until Nifty stays below the Previous Resistance near 7980 it may further continue it's decline to 7200 and 6800 in 'Y' wave of the complex correction. Only a sustained move above 8000 would be an indication of end of downtrend. And hence, I would look for any alternate wave count only above 8000.

The current decline is similar to the correction of 2011. Indian Market generally witnesses a major correction of approx. 30-40% in every 7-8 years. And it is observed that the corrective phase generally lasts for 11-13 months. Nifty Topped out in March 2015. So the current decline may last till April 2016; and Nifty may bottom out near 6800.

April 2016 may bring once in lifetime opportunity to Invest in Equities. So lets wait and watch. 


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY - SANTA CLAUS RALLY

Hi Friends,

In my last post I mentioned about Head & Shoulder breakdown on Nifty. As mentioned Nifty is in complex correction in WXY.

NIFTY

Currently Nifty seems to be in 'X' wave of the complex correction; which is further subdivided. Nifty seem to have completed 'b' wave of X at 7551. It may bounce to 8110 in 'c' wave of X if Bulls mange to cross 7765-7815; else it may continue its decline to 7490-7440 or lower. Until Nifty stays below the Channel Resistance near 8110-8180 it may further continue it's decline to 7200 and 6800 in 'Y' wave of the complex correction. Only a sustained move above 8180 would be an indication of end of downtrend. And hence, I would look for any alternate wave count only above 8180.

The current decline is similar to the correction of 2011. Indian Market generally witnesses a major correction of approx. 30-40% in every 7-8 years. And it is observed that the corrective phase generally lasts for 11-13 months. Nifty Topped out in March 2015. So the current decline may last till April 2016; and Nifty may bottom out near 6800.

April 2016 may bring once in lifetime opportunity to Invest in Equities. So lets wait and watch. 


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.