22 September 2021

Monkey and The Stock Market Story

Monkey and The Stock Market Story



If you’ve been wondering how the stock markets work, here is a popular story of buying and selling monkeys that draws an analogy on the stock market. Though this is just a fable, it is not very far from reality when it comes to the style of functioning of today’s markets:


Once a man appeared in a village and announced that he wanted to buy     monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, realizing that there was no dearth of monkeys in the nearby forest, went out and started catching them. The man bought thousands of monkeys at $10. As supply started to fall down, the villagers stopped catching more monkeys.

Now the man further announced that he would now buy monkeys at $20 each. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. As the supply diminished even further, people once again stopped catching monkeys and started going back to their farms.

The man further increased the rate to $25. Soon the supply of monkeys became so little that it was quite an effort to even get a glimpse of a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50. However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him.

In the absence of the man, the assistant said to the villagers: “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50.”

The villagers squeezed up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys. But they never ever saw the man or his assistant again in the village; only monkeys everywhere!


Welcome to the Stock Market!




An average small investor looks at the stock markets and is encouraged when he sees the indices and individual company shares are going up.  Foreign Institutional Investors are investing as the prices are attractive. He also starts buying.  He can only buy small quantities.  A small fish in the ocean of  big fish, very big fish and whales. When samll investors enter the market, the index raises even further. Individually he is small but collectively it is considerable investments. But he will discover shortly that the stocks he purchased have started falling even if others are rising. Rising was in units but fall is in tens.  Then suddenly FIIs start selling.  Before he realises and reacts, the shares have fallen steeply and the index has collapsed.  At a time when he exits the market he has already lost a large part of his money.


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Harsh Dixit.


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10 January 2021

THE 14 STAGES OF INVESTOR EMOTIONS

THE 14 STAGES OF INVESTOR EMOTIONS


Efficient Markets are based on the assumption that rational people enter transactions with the intent to maximize gains and minimize losses. While this theory is sound, most investors are not the purely rational robots that efficient markets rely upon. Instead, emotions often cloud our decision-making and prevent us from acting in a rational manner.

Knowing we can never conquer our inherent emotional biases, we should seek to understand the range of emotions we may experience as investors and how it affects our interactions with the market. A common market psychology cycle exists that shines light on how emotions evolve and the effect they have on our decisions. By understanding the stages of this cycle, we can tame the emotional roller coaster.

The chart below is a visual representation of the 14 stages that I’ll cover below. This would be a great visual to print out and put in your office or desk to remind you to ask yourself: “Where am I right now?”



1. OPTIMISM – It all starts with a hunch or a positive outlook leading us to buy a stock.

2. EXCITEMENT – Things start moving our way and we get giddy inside. We start to anticipate and hope that a possible success story is in the making.
.
3. THRILL – The market continues to be favorable and we just can’t help but start
to feel a little “Smart.” At this point we have complete confidence in trading system.


4. EUPHORIA – This marks the point of maximum financial risk but also maximum financial gain. Our investments turn into quick and easy profits, so we begin to ignore the basic concept of risk We now start trading anything that we can get our hands on to make a buck.

5. ANXIETY – Oh no – it’s turning around! The markets start to show their first signs of taking your “hard earned” gains back. But having never seen this happen, we still remain ultra greedy and think the long-term trend is higher.

6. DENIAL – The markets don’t turn as quickly as we had hoped. There must be something wrong we think to ourselves. Our “long-term” view now shortens to a near-term hope of an improvement.


7. FEAR – Reality sets in that we are not as smart as we once thought. Instead of being confident in our trading we become confused. At this point we should get out with a small profit and move on but we don’t for some stupid reason.

8. DESPERATION – All gains have been lost at this point. We had our chance to profit and missed it. Not knowing how to act, we attempt to do anything that will bring our positions back into the black.

9. PANIC – The most emotional period by far. We are clueless and helpless. At this stage we feel like we are at the mercy of the market and have absolutely no control.

10. CAPITULATION – We have reached our breaking point and sell our positions at any price. So long as we can get out of the market to avoid bigger losses we are content.

11. DESPONDENCY – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. The markets are not for us and should be avoided like the plague. However, this rare point marks the point of maximum financial opportunity.

12. DEPRESSION – We drink, cry and/or pray. How could we have been so dumb we think to ourselves. Some start to correctly look back and analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born here, learning from past mistakes.

13. HOPE – We can still do this! Eventually we return come to the realization the market actually does have cycles (shocking). We begin to start analyzing new opportunities.

14. RELIEF – The markets are turning positive again and we see our prior investment come back around. We regain our faith (although small) in our ability to invest our money. The cycle start all over again!


Individuals clearly follow this cycle in their decision making process. Since broad indices like Nifty 50 are comprised of the decision of millions of individuals, we should expect index prices to track this pattern as well. If we are aware of the stage of the cycle we are experiencing at a given point in time we will have a greater grasp of how our emotions are affecting our investment decisions. This knowledge will help us manage our own investment portfolios as well as predict the next step for the broad market.




Harsh Dixit.

MBA | CFA
Trader | Investor | Trainer | Mentor 
#StockMarket #Technicalanalysis #Elliottwave #Trendfollowing #Priceaction #Learner 
 





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Kindly Give Your Opinion in Comment Box which stage are we in according to you?

17 September 2020

TOP 25 JESSE LIVERMORE QUOTES

TOP 25 JESSE LIVERMORE QUOTES

Writing today about "Jesse Livermore", one of the greatest traders who ever lived. My trading style is much influenced by Jesse Livermore the Legend.

JESSE LIVERMORE

Jesse Livermore

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 1877 – November 1940) was an American stock trader. He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre. At one time, he was one of the richest people in the world. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today's dollars roughly equates to $1.5 billion. There is no question that times have changed since Mr. Livermore traded stocks and commodities. Despite the change in times, his rules still apply.


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Top 25 Jesse Livermore Quotes


1. There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.


2. A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.


3. The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.


4. A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips.


5. To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.


6. Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.


7. If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.


8. It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.


9. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.


10. I did precisely the wrong thing. The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.


11. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!


12. The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.


13. Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don’t get too confident over your wins or too despondent over your losses.


14. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.


15. Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.


16. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.


17. In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices breaks through the limit in either direction.


18. Remember this: when you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.


19. All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.


20. There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.


21. Watch the market leaders, the stocks that have led the charge upward in a bull market. That is where the action is and where the money is to be made. As the leaders go, so goes the entire market. If you cannot make money in the leaders, you are not going to make money in the stock market. Watching the leaders keeps your universe of stocks limited, focused, and more easily controlled.


22. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.


23. Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start.


24. There is a time to go long. There is a time to go short. There is a time to go fishing.


25. Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.


Harsh Dixit.

MBA | CFA
Trader | Investor | Trainer | Mentor 
#StockMarket #Technicalanalysis #Elliottwave #Trendfollowing #Priceaction #Learner 
 


Further Education on Technical Analysis/ Trading Psychology


Top 10 Trading Books

THE 14 STAGES OF INVESTOR EMOTIONS

Free E-Book on Elliott Wave Principle

Master To Trade Elliott Waves

Price Action Trading Guide

𝟱 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘆-𝘁𝗼-𝗦𝗽𝗼𝘁 𝗘𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝘁𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝘁-𝘂𝗽𝘀  (𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲)
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YouTube Channel for regular Updates on Stock Markets

Twitter - Everything You want to Know About Stock Markets

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Telegram Channel - Stocks, Charts, Trading Quotes

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