BEARS TOOK REVENGE.. THE GAME HAS PROBABLY BEGUN..

NIFTY

Hi Friends,


The trend possibly turned down with 120 points gone in 1 day. Seems like Bears took revenge after being bullied for a month. 


Tomorrow 5060-5040 is last hope for Bulls. If 5060-5040 is held a pull back to 5230-5250 max possible.


Break below channel will further worsen things for Bulls. Below 5040 gates are open for 4980-4940.. Below which 4830 is on cards..  4800 is the last hope for Bulls. Below which a New Low on Nifty is coming for sure.. 4250 latest by March end on cards..

Happy Minting..

Thanks & Regards

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY RALLY MAY CONTINUE TO 5250 AND BEARS TO BE FRIED

NIFTY WAVE COUNT

Hi Friends,


The Current trend in Nifty which still strong and looks to be Bullish can get stretched to 5250 or even higher. The RSI is in overbought territory but still we cannot deny the possibility of this rally to get stretched to a no. such as 5250 or higher before fizzling out. 


Its still not clear whether it is a Bull or Bear Rally. But my analysis tells me though it looks to be Bull Rally it is actually an irregular flat corrective where c leg of B can get stretched to 5250 or higher. And then the final C leg may take Nifty to 4250.


So let this rally get stretched to 5250 and Bears get fried and thrown out of the system. Let Bulls & Bears get convinced that this is indeed a Bull Rally and create some Euphoria and trap Bulls then will be the time to short.


If we carefully look at the chart we can clearly identify that all the contra-trend moves (B or X leg) touched the upper end of the channel. So for me this seems to be over stretched corrective rally and move above 5100 to 5210 or 5250 or higher seems more of a Bull Trap.


The trend will reverse upon break below rising channel and shorts to be taken only after confirmation.


Though Nifty is not helping me to identify whether this is Bull or Bear Rally; Inter-Market Technical Analysis of Dollar Index, EUR/USD and US & Europe Indices are strongly indicating bearish reversal in Global Markets.. 


I have already posted Dow Jones chart.. Will add more Global Indices charts in some time..




Happy Minting..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

DOW JONES SEEM TO HAVE TOPPED OUT

DJIA

Hi Friends,


Dow Jones seem to have topped out after retracing more than 90% of it fall from May 2011 top to Aug 2011 low. The entire fall from May to Aug 2011 is labeled as Wave 1 and the Current rise is wave 2 which might have completed at today's high of 12841. 


This wave 2 as a complex corrective of W-X-Y looks complete and a deeper correction in wave three down shall come soon. 


RSI and ROC are showing negative divergence and this divergence shall work and the trend will reverse to down upon break below the upward rising channel  at 12600.. Break below 12280 the will further confirm the correction.


The view will get negated above 12876. Above 12876 we will look for much bullish alternatives.


So lets wait and watch.


Happy Minting,


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

HAS NIFTY BOTTOMED OUT?

Hi Friends,

Its lot been talked about the Nifty and whether it has Bottomed out or not.

Well as an Elliot Student it is still difficult to say whether it has bottomed out or not.

Using simple Technical Analysis I would give equal probability to both sides..

Well as I said earlier most of my initial lowest targets on individual stocks are already done. Form the kind of move seen in Mid Caps & Large Caps it seems to be a start of Bull Market. Also previous Top in Nifty 5100 crossed. According to Elliot the ongoing Rally is indeed impulse.

Well as per Elliot wave if I go with my Alternate Wave count 4530 was Bottom. And the 1st up move to 4800 was wave 1. And 4588 was wave 2. Currently moving in wave 3 up. So whenever this rally fizzles out and Nifty starts coming down, wave 4 shall not overlap wave1. i.e. Nifty shall not go below 4800. Breach of 4800 means Alternate count is wrong. Well then I will go with my preferred count. And Nifty will then go below 4530.. But if Nifty holds 4900 I will then be extremely Bullish on India. My Analysis gives much higher target of 7200-8000-8600 by 2014 End.

Well I do a lot of Inter-Market Technical Analysis.

As I said in my Earlier post I'm Strongly Bullish on Dollar Index and Strongly Bearish on EUR/USD.. Both imply Bearish move on Global Equities & Commodities.

Well again Europe and US Indices seem to have completed wave 2 up and topped out. And a faster and deeper correction in wave 3 down shall come any time soon.

So on one hand I have slightly Bullish bias on India on the other I'm strongly Bearish on Europe and US. Well this is contradictory and hence not allowing me to end Bear Market in India.

So as an Investor I will wait and watch to get clear cut Long-Term Trend Reversal confirmation. If the Bull Market has already started at 4530 it is not going to end in next 6 months. So I'm in no hurry to Buy for Long Term. Even if I buy on Decisive Channel Breakout and sustained close on monthly closing basis somewhere above 5350-5400 I will make money in Long Term. As my Long Term target is min. 7200 til 2014 end.

 For the time being I will just wait and watch.


4800 remains the key for Long Term Trend Direction.


Happy Minting,


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

UP MOVE IN NIFTY MAY GET EXTENDED TO 5180

NIFTY WAVE COUNT

Hi Friends,


It is always the case when everyone expecting something market does opposite. Today's CRR Cut by RBI was a shocker. As most people were expecting no change in policy may lead to drop in prices. But Market deed exactly opposite on RBI's surprise. 


It Seems Bears are in Hurry to short and Bulls will frustrate them buy taking Nifty to much Higher levels. Well After a sharp rally we might see a profit booking session. But a dip to 5050 can actually be a buy for 5180-5210.. Upside seems limited max 5210.


Well according to my preferred wave count B leg (or as per alternate count - wave 3) may get extended to 5180-5210 also.  So I did mistake by calling for short early without confirmation. Shorts to be held with strict sl 5180. I would rather prefer to square shorts & enter fresh on confirmation below 5030.


Well a break below 4800 implies my preferred count to be correct and nifty will make new low. if 4850-4900 held I would rather look for long term trend change signs and be bullish for much higher targets..


Currently I would say just wait and watch.


Happy Minting..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

DOLLAR INDEX HEADING TO 87 WHILE EUR/USD TO DROP TO 1.15

Hi Friends,


As a Technical Analyst it is always better to do some Inter-Market Technical Analysis.


It helps to understand the correlation between different Asset classes and gives deeper understanding of market trend in general.


Lets look at some charts:-

DOLLAR INDEX

DOLLAR INDEX MONTHLY

So while studying the Dollar Index chart I see a clear Inverted Head & Shoulder Breakout which can take it all the way to 87.. So while Dollar will move upward it is negative for commodities & equities all over the Globe. Well looking at the monthly chart I can see much larger Inverted HnS which will break above 87. If this larger Inv. HnS Break Dollar Index may move to 107.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD MONTHLY

While Dollar Index has given breakout from it Inverted HnS the Currency pair EUR/USD has clear breakdown below Head & Shoulder pattern. This would take pair to 1.15 in next 2 months.. But I'm worried about the Larger HnS on Monthly chart. A move to 1.15 would imply Break below larger HnS on Monthly Chart. This Larger HnS can take EUR/USD to 0.90.. This is the real risk lying in Eurozone.

USD/INR

Finally looking at USD/INR chart the currency pair is in its final leg of up-move. While the Dollar index to move upwards it will impact negatively on other currencies. The USD/INR can move to achieve the flag/pennant pole target to Rs.56-57/$




Now the Dollar's up move is Negative for other Currencies, Commodities & Equities. Us & other Global Equity Markets & Commodities will fall.  Further EUR/USD downward move will be negative for Euro-zone hence European Markets to Collapse. 


USD/INR would impact negatively for Indian Equity Market & Nifty can move to min 4300 to 3600 in worst case.


Happy Minting.




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit..

MARC FABER FOOLING U.S. INVESTORS

Hi Friends,


Dow Jones rallied 96 points on Friday to 12,720 upon Marc Faber shouting on Bloomberg T.V. to Buy Equities. 


He said in an interview on Bloomberg T.V. "Investors have created a Bubble in highest quality Govt. Bonds, such as US Treasury & German Bunds, and should move to equities."


He further said "Investors are better off in Equities than in Govt. Bonds because a lot of Bonds will either Default or they need to print more money."


Now I would like to ask Mr. Marc Faber.. If Govt. Bonds will Default how Equities are safe?


If I was an US Investor I would rather sell all my Equities and Buy a "Credit Default Swap" on these Bonds to make money. That's what Hedge Funds deed in 2008 and made millions.


Well I know Marc Faber is fooling Investors and he is doing exactly opposite and selling equities on Top.


Here is proof how he fools Investors..


Check what he said last time about Gold:-

Gold ‘Not in a Bubble’ as Central Banks Keep Printing Money, Faber Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-06/marc-faber-sees-no-bubble-in-gold.html

And we all know what happened after that.


Well while Dow Jones rallied 96 pts. S&P 500 Index was flat and Nasdaq Composite was marginally negative. 


I would like to thank Mr. Marc Faber for giving me a sell confirmation.


Most of the world markets have completed Wave 2 Up and would collapse in wave 3 down soon.




Happy Minting,


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

PRICE & VOLUME ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,


Well when everyone is busy in guessing the bottom. I spent some time to do Price & Volume Analysis.


In an uptrend or Bullish Trend Price & Volume has positive correlation. i.e. Volumes expand when prices rise and contract when prices fall.


While in a down trend or Bearish Trend Price & Volume has negative correlation . i.e. Volumes expand when prices fall and contract when prices rise.


Now lets look at these charts:-

PRICE & VOLUME 2008

From this 2008 chart we can clearly see that in late 2007 when trend was up price & volume were in positive correlation. But when the trend turned down volumes expanded on down move & contracted on pull back rallies. But after the final drop in OCT 2008 price & volume again showed positive correlation.

PRICE & VOLUME AT BOTTOM 2009

From the above chart we can see that how price and volume showed positive correlation after the final drop in OCT 2008. We can clearly see volumes expanding on rise and contracting o fall.

PRICE & VOLUME  2011

Now in this chart of 2011 downtrend we can see how price & volume are in negative correlation. We can also see how Nifty is moving in channel & after breaking the channel it giving a Sharpe move in opposite direction. we have still not witnessed any positive correlation in Price & Volume. So we cannot say Nifty has Bottomed Out. 


Well & as we can see Nifty Moving in Channel. The break from this upward rising channel will lead to Sharpe down move.




Happy Minting,


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

HANGING MAN ON NIFTY BULL WILL BE DEAD BELOW 4800

Hi Friends.

As per our preferred count Nifty achieved target of 5060. So the current up-move looks complete at 5064 and hence I have labeled it as B leg of the final Z leg of the Triple Zigzag.. And the major C leg would start from Monday.

As per Fibonacci Nifty completed .618 of A leg (5400-4531).


As per W.D. Gann's Techniques 23rd Jan is Bearish Reversal Day. 

As per candlesticks Hanging Man is a Bearish reversal pattern. 

RSI giving Hidden/Negative Bearish Divergence on Nifty as well as Most of the Indices & stocks.

So BULLS BEWARE.. We have already given you early warning on Thursday it self.

Trend would resume to Bearish below the upward sloping channel. 4930.. And below 4800 Bull will be Dead. As Break below 4800 implies that our counting is correct. And 4530 is not the Bottom. Nifty will make New low if 4800 is broken in this fall.

If 4800 is not broken then I will look for alternate count indicating 4530 as Bottom.

But currently I'm nearly sure that 4530 is not Bottom and Nifty will make new low.

In past six months we deed it really well:-

 from 4700-5400 then 5400-4700 and again from 4700-5100 we were right in predicting these moves. At 5100 we called for 4300-4400 but we changed our view below 4700 itself.. Again we were right in calling for 5000+.

And now we are aiming 4300 or 3900 or worst case 3600..

Well as I always believe that it is not being right or wrong but it is more Imp. how much you earn when you are right & how much you lose when wrong.

So the day I will find I'm wrong I will simply book my losses and move on with Market.

Happy Minting,

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY WAVE COUNT

NIFTY WAVE COUNT

Hi Friends,


Well while everyone is concerned for short term targets on NIFTY; I always look at Long-Term Chart 1st, Identify the major trend and then go for short term price targets.


So the major trend which still looks to be Bearish might be in its last phase.


I'm not a Elliot chap. This is for the first time I'm doing Elliot Wave Analysis.


So Structurally the fall from Nov 2010 which has been a Channeled affair so far, can be labeled as a complex corrective. In case the channel is broken on the down side we may see situation like Oct 2008 and retest of gap-up area of 3600-3900 cannot be rules out.


So, the current structure looks to be a Triple Zig-Zag.


After the X wave in Oct High of 5400 the fall in Nov till 4640 was 5 wave pattern and is labeled as Wave A. Currently Nifty is moving up in wave c of B which may end somewhere near 5060-5070. And then wave C down which is the final leg of this down fall will start.


Well where this final leg will end is a misery... :)


It may end near 4300. Or 3900 or in Worst Panic 3600.


I'm least interested in guessing where it will end. But would rather wait and watch..


So currently I'm only interested in finding a good sell opportunity which may come within next two days.


Tomorrow might be the last day for BULLS to enjoy the Party.


So if you are long please square all the longs till tomorrow.


BEARS ARE AWAKEN & WILL HIT IT HARD..




Disclaimer:- This is the first time I'm doing Elliot Wave Analysis which may not be correct. But according to my simple Technical patterns 5060-5070 is strong Resistance and will be met with selling pressure. And 4150-4300 is my target as per the 2 year Long (2009-2011) HnS Pattern which is still pending






Happy Minting..


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

JOR SE BAJEGI GHANTI

Hi all,

A last upward move or upswing till 5060-5080 tomorrow possible.

Don't expect much from the Markets. A new low would be created after touching 5060-5080.

BULLS BEWARE....                  ......JITNA BECH SAKTE HO UTNA BECH LO......

Monday se GHANTI BAJANE KI UMMID HAI.

I have not posted the chart as my friend HARSH has already  posted the chart yesterday.

This is my view and this fall will reap nice fruits (strawberries) to all BEARS.

My Targets on Stocks:

RIL < 600, BPCL < 300, Tata Motor < 160, Maruti <800, L&T < 800, Infosys < 2000..... 


BAND BAJA BAJEGA.... JOR JOR SE.... :)

Tomorrow might be the last chance to sell.

Happy Minting


Thanks & Regards,

Pushkar Date.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY

Hi Friends,

Nifty is heading up in a channel ever since it touched 4588. After a strong up move of 90 points a profit booking session was eminent. The short term trend remains bullish and no trend reversal signal generated yet. So our target of 5040-5060 is still on the cards.

On the upside it has strong resistance near 5060. While support is place at 4920 and 4880.

Trend will resume to bearish below 4880. So Bulls may hold on to longs with sl of 4880 & Bears just wait for breach of 4880.

While current upside looks limited till 5060 there is significant downside risk below 4880.

So if Nifty breaks below 4880 it will head to 4780-4690-4590-4425-4300.

Tomorrow there is 10 year Spanish Bond auction which could turn out to be a key driver for further Market Action.

So just wait and watch. And always follow the trend.

Happy Minting,

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit

NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE (16-Jan-2012)

NIFTY

Hi Friends,

I'm a Financial Analyst by Profession and passionate about Technical Analysis and Trading.

I'm learning and practicing Technical Analysis since last 1 year and active in in market since last 2 years.

This is my first blog about the Nifty.....


There is lot of negative news Globally and some positive news Domestically.

But it would be unfair to keep bearish bias bcoz of the events lined up Globally & Domestically.

While most of the news has been already factored in there is something behind the scene.

So stick to the principal of Technical Analysis one must see what chart tells you and don't try to find things what you want .

Well on one hand Nifty and most of the stocks have given breakout of the short term pattern which is Bullish sign, on the other hand there is Negative Divergence on RSI on Nifty, most of the Stocks & Indices.

But till the time we don't get confirmation its not a trade to go Short.

Short term trend still remains Bullish. And trend will turn Bearish only on break below 4790.

So for the time being Nifty will play Tennis Match between Bulls & Bears within the range of 4800-4900 (like it did around 4700-4800) and will be in love with 4850-4860 for few days. It will give clear direction only on breakout on either side.

If it breaks above 4900 it can go to 4990-5060 and even 5170 as per my alternate count. ( isn't it shocking)

And if it breaks below 4790 then 4690-4590-4425.

For the time being upside seems more likely.

So what we have to do..

Nothing but enjoy the Match between Bulls & Bears and spend some time on Analysis. Its not necessary to trade every day and every move.

4800-4900 is non trending range and please don't take new positions within this range.

Looking at the short term momentum buying near 4820-4830 is preferred only on down open.. But don't short on upside.

Those who are Long stay Long with sl of 4790-4800.. And who are short keep sl of 4900.

Don't take new positions within the range of 4800-4900 and just enjoy the Match.


Happy Minting,

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.