HAS NIFTY BOTTOMED OUT?

Hi Friends,

Its lot been talked about the Nifty and whether it has Bottomed out or not.

Well as an Elliot Student it is still difficult to say whether it has bottomed out or not.

Using simple Technical Analysis I would give equal probability to both sides..

Well as I said earlier most of my initial lowest targets on individual stocks are already done. Form the kind of move seen in Mid Caps & Large Caps it seems to be a start of Bull Market. Also previous Top in Nifty 5100 crossed. According to Elliot the ongoing Rally is indeed impulse.

Well as per Elliot wave if I go with my Alternate Wave count 4530 was Bottom. And the 1st up move to 4800 was wave 1. And 4588 was wave 2. Currently moving in wave 3 up. So whenever this rally fizzles out and Nifty starts coming down, wave 4 shall not overlap wave1. i.e. Nifty shall not go below 4800. Breach of 4800 means Alternate count is wrong. Well then I will go with my preferred count. And Nifty will then go below 4530.. But if Nifty holds 4900 I will then be extremely Bullish on India. My Analysis gives much higher target of 7200-8000-8600 by 2014 End.

Well I do a lot of Inter-Market Technical Analysis.

As I said in my Earlier post I'm Strongly Bullish on Dollar Index and Strongly Bearish on EUR/USD.. Both imply Bearish move on Global Equities & Commodities.

Well again Europe and US Indices seem to have completed wave 2 up and topped out. And a faster and deeper correction in wave 3 down shall come any time soon.

So on one hand I have slightly Bullish bias on India on the other I'm strongly Bearish on Europe and US. Well this is contradictory and hence not allowing me to end Bear Market in India.

So as an Investor I will wait and watch to get clear cut Long-Term Trend Reversal confirmation. If the Bull Market has already started at 4530 it is not going to end in next 6 months. So I'm in no hurry to Buy for Long Term. Even if I buy on Decisive Channel Breakout and sustained close on monthly closing basis somewhere above 5350-5400 I will make money in Long Term. As my Long Term target is min. 7200 til 2014 end.

 For the time being I will just wait and watch.


4800 remains the key for Long Term Trend Direction.


Happy Minting,


Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.