23 February 2012

5630.. IS IT AN UGLY TOP OF THIS RALLY?

Hi Friends,


After rallying crazily since Jan Nifty has now taken a pause where it exactly should... Today Nifty completed 61.8% Retracement of its entire fall from 6338 to 4531.. 


Well but is it an Ugly Top for this Rally?

Well according to my preferred Wave Count today's high seems to be the end of much extended wave 3..
And now we shall see some correction in wave 4 down to 5340 or max 5280..


Well but as experts say don't try to predict end of wave extension I just exited the longs.. Till the time this rising channel is not broken Nifty will keep rising.. So Shorts are not yet invited until 5434 is broken.. 
NIFTY


1st confirmation of the end of wave extension will come below this rising channel. (i.e below 5505). But there is immediate support at 5475.. And next strong support is placed at 5434. 5434 is the Key for Bulls..


Shorts to be taken only below this support of 5434.. So below 5434 we shall see correction till 5340 or 5280 or max till 5215.. Wave 4 will be triangular activity and shall consume 1-2 weeks max.. Post which we shall see Rally to 5922-5947 or much higher to 6180.


Currently I'm following Prechter's Techniques. And considering this Rally to be an Impulsive Bull.


But Some people follow Neely..


So As per NEO WAVE.. Today's High Could Turn out to be an Ugly Top.


I have applied NEO WAVE ON SENSEX..


SENSEX
So as per NEO this Rally looks to be a corrective double zigzag.. Which also might turn out to be a Triple and move higher but a rare combination.



NEO Wave considers channeled moves as Complex Correctives involving “x” waves. As marked, Sensex today seem to have completed “c” of the 2nd Zigzag corrective or "a" leg on one larger degree of the Larger D. Initial sign of weakness would be provided by weakness and close below the channel (b-x line) drawn over last five weeks’ move.



While a decisive break below the channel (b-x line) could begin a corrective phase inside the D leg, i.e. “b” of D. This corrective 'b' could be a sharp correction till 16800.


DIAMETRIC
Considering the possibility of Bow Tie shaped Diametric SENSEX will hit New low after rallying to 20K

Currently strategy should be sell below 5434 with sl of 5505 for target of 5340-5280. And that dip to 5280 could turn out as buy with sl of 5215.






HAPPY MINTING..


THANKS & REGARDS,


HARSH DIXIT