14 February 2014

NIFTY - EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post break below 6190 has confirmed the start of Downtrend and also concluded Truncation at 6356. Nifty made an Orthodox Top at 6415 in Dec 2013. But I would like to conclude the Typical Jan (2014) Top at 6356 in 'Z' wave which started at 5118 in Aug 2013.
NIFTY
When the final wave in a sequence truncates it signifies Bull exhaustion and the drop post such truncation is fast & furious. Nifty indeed created weekly Gap Down below 6190 and dropped almost 420 points in just7/8 trading session which might be wave 1/w/a. Post this Drop Nifty retraced only 38.2% of the fall in 7 trading session which indicates weakness or Bear power. This pullback to 6106 might be marked as wave 2/x/b.

Today Nifty again broke the Bear Flag and indicated resumption of Downtrend. Break below 5930 will further confirm the down side. As per wave equality Nifty might drop to 5683 in wave 3/y/c in next 7/8 trading sessions (i.e. till 21st Feb). In case of wave extension Nifty might test 5569 which is also weekly Channel support.

I would like to maintain my Long Term Bearish stance on Nifty and break below weekly Channel will confirm the downside to 5100-4900 in next 2 months. 2014 might be the Final year of Bear and would take Index down to 4400-3600 in next 10-12 months.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.