WHAT'S IN STORE FOR MAY?

Hi Friends,


Its been quite long Nifty has been moving in the tight range and the range is getting smaller as the time passes. But now Nifty is at make or break point. As the Summer Heat gets on with MAY Nifty is likely to break this directionless range and give a definite directional move on either side. So we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious move. As the Summer Heat gets on one Camp will be Deeply Fried this MAY...

NIFTY MONTHLY DOJI

 Lets 1st look at this monthly chart of Nifty. After the good start in Jan with Engulfing Bull Nifty moved higher to 5630 in Feb but failed to close above the psychological mark of 5400. In Feb we can witness Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star kind Candlestick pattern with Highest ever Volume signalling possible Trend Reversal. And in March and April we can see the Doji Candlestick pattern with declining volumes indicating indecision. March and April months have lower consecutive closes compared to Feb signalling weakness. April month witnessed lowest ever volumes. So on the monthly charts we can see possible Trend Reversal but need confirmation by closing  below the lows.

NIFTY HNS

If we observe the weekly chart over the last three years we can see this Head & Shoulder formation which is still valid as Nifty just kissed the Neckline in Feb and started turning down. So there is still risk of New Low on Nifty. For which we need confirmation below 4936 (0.618) of the Jan-Feb Rally and further below 4764 (0.786) of the Rally.

USD/INR

Further if we observe this USD/INR chart which has resumed its Bull Trend and crossed above the (0.618) of the Fall of Dec-Feb. So either of Nifty or USD/INR shall surrender. both cannot remain in Bull Trend.


However on the other hand we can also see the Bullish Flag or Pennant formation on the weekly chart of the Nifty. But we still need a clear breakout of this range to ride on the Rally if any. So above 5330 I will aim for 5600 initially and if it crosses 5630 I will then aim for much higher target near 5950.

NIFTY FLAG/PENNANT

So once Nifty Breaks on either side we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious Move. Currently I have Bearish bias but I'm not married to my views. If Nifty crosses 5330 I will be Bullish for 5600. And if it crosses 5630 I will aim for 5950. On the other hand I will add more shorts below 5080 and aim for 4989-4838-4764.. And if it breaks 4764 I will aim for New Low on Nifty around 4245.


So be Ready to Ride this Fast & Furious Move on either side.




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE

Hi Friends,

Its been long I have not posted my view on Nifty. But the patterns which are developing on Nifty could not resist me for posting the view.

With this Spinning Top on Nifty short term reversal is on the cards. We can also see volumes are very low throughout this rally from 5140-5380. Which is another indication of lack of buying interest.

With this Island Reversal pattern Nifty may open Gap Down on Monday and head down towards 5220 where it will take support for time being. If it breaks below 5220 it will head to 5140 where there are cluster of supports where one would like to review whether it is heading back to 5250 or sliding towards 5070 amid Global Volatility.

NIFTY

Wave count wise nothing changed. I'm again going with my preferred count of complex corrective. While most Ellioticions believe that the Complex corrective was over at 4531, I'm still giving it a possibility of Expended Flat for this Last leg. So currently Nifty might be heading down in this Final C leg of which the dangerous wave 3 has started and is subdividing into I-II. We can further see that Nifty is sliding in channel which further gives me the confidence on the preferred wave count.

April is very crucial month for the long term direction of the Market and is lined up with lots of events viz-a-viz. IIP Data, Inflation Nos., RBI Monetary Policy Review, Quarterly Results & Second Budget Session with eyes on most controversial issue of GAAR.

On monthly trading basis Nifty has so far been able to trade above the Year Long Trend Channel; but with that Hanging Man kind of Candle in Feb & Doji in March, closing of April is most important. In April if Nifty closes below that Trend Channel and most importantly below 5000, I will stick my neck out n say Nifty may form new Low.

As of now its not worth predicting some random nos. and I'll stick to discipline with short term targets. So currently I'm looking at 5220 as immediate support and at 5140 will review the next course of action.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit

WARNING BELLS RINGING ON DOW JONES.

Hi Friends,


With the breakdown from this Terminal Triangle in Wave 5 of C Warning Bells are ringing on Dow Jones.


The Day it Closes Below 13K all the Bullish Bets in this World will be off.


We can clearly Identify this Ending Diagonal or Terminal Triangle in Wave 5 of C with complete overlapping by Waves (a,b,c,d,e). This is Vary Dangerous pattern for Bulls.

DJIA Dialy

Further this Rising Wadge on Dow Jones can take it to minimum 11500. We can Also see a clear RSI Negative Divergence on DJIA weekly chart and declining volumes on rally which is clear indication of losing momentum.


Well I have two alternate counts on Dow Jones.


As per my 1st Alternate taking this high of 13300 as wave A; the impending wave B would take it down to near 11500 level which is also the Rising Wadge target.

DJIA Weekly

But Lets look at this second alternate of an Expanded Flat. Taking the High of 13300 as Wave B of an Expanded Flat the Impending Wave C can take DJIA to as low as 9550.

DJIA Weekly

As of now I'm going with this second alternative which is my preferred count. But the mode of the forthcoming fall will lead us whether to choose which 1 of these two.


Only in case DJIA goes above this high of 13300 we need to reconsider these alternatives as then it would be something else.


Thanks & Regards


Harsh Dixit