WHAT'S IN STORE FOR MAY?

Hi Friends,


Its been quite long Nifty has been moving in the tight range and the range is getting smaller as the time passes. But now Nifty is at make or break point. As the Summer Heat gets on with MAY Nifty is likely to break this directionless range and give a definite directional move on either side. So we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious move. As the Summer Heat gets on one Camp will be Deeply Fried this MAY...

NIFTY MONTHLY DOJI

 Lets 1st look at this monthly chart of Nifty. After the good start in Jan with Engulfing Bull Nifty moved higher to 5630 in Feb but failed to close above the psychological mark of 5400. In Feb we can witness Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star kind Candlestick pattern with Highest ever Volume signalling possible Trend Reversal. And in March and April we can see the Doji Candlestick pattern with declining volumes indicating indecision. March and April months have lower consecutive closes compared to Feb signalling weakness. April month witnessed lowest ever volumes. So on the monthly charts we can see possible Trend Reversal but need confirmation by closing  below the lows.

NIFTY HNS

If we observe the weekly chart over the last three years we can see this Head & Shoulder formation which is still valid as Nifty just kissed the Neckline in Feb and started turning down. So there is still risk of New Low on Nifty. For which we need confirmation below 4936 (0.618) of the Jan-Feb Rally and further below 4764 (0.786) of the Rally.

USD/INR

Further if we observe this USD/INR chart which has resumed its Bull Trend and crossed above the (0.618) of the Fall of Dec-Feb. So either of Nifty or USD/INR shall surrender. both cannot remain in Bull Trend.


However on the other hand we can also see the Bullish Flag or Pennant formation on the weekly chart of the Nifty. But we still need a clear breakout of this range to ride on the Rally if any. So above 5330 I will aim for 5600 initially and if it crosses 5630 I will then aim for much higher target near 5950.

NIFTY FLAG/PENNANT

So once Nifty Breaks on either side we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious Move. Currently I have Bearish bias but I'm not married to my views. If Nifty crosses 5330 I will be Bullish for 5600. And if it crosses 5630 I will aim for 5950. On the other hand I will add more shorts below 5080 and aim for 4989-4838-4764.. And if it breaks 4764 I will aim for New Low on Nifty around 4245.


So be Ready to Ride this Fast & Furious Move on either side.




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.