NIFTY - EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post break below 6190 has confirmed the start of Downtrend and also concluded Truncation at 6356. Nifty made an Orthodox Top at 6415 in Dec 2013. But I would like to conclude the Typical Jan (2014) Top at 6356 in 'Z' wave which started at 5118 in Aug 2013.

NIFTY

When the final wave in a sequence truncates it signifies Bull exhaustion and the drop post such truncation is fast & furious. Nifty indeed created weekly Gap Down below 6190 and dropped almost 420 points in just7/8 trading session which might be wave 1/w/a. Post this Drop Nifty retraced only 38.2% of the fall in 7 trading session which indicates weakness or Bear power. This pullback to 6106 might be marked as wave 2/x/b.

Today Nifty again broke the Bear Flag and indicated resumption of Downtrend. Break below 5930 will further confirm the down side. As per wave equality Nifty might drop to 5683 in wave 3/y/c in next 7/8 trading sessions (i.e. till 21st Feb). In case of wave extension Nifty might test 5569 which is also weekly Channel support.

I would like to maintain my Long Term Bearish stance on Nifty and break below weekly Channel will confirm the downside to 5100-4900 in next 2 months. 2014 might be the Final year of Bear and would take Index down to 4400-3600 in next 10-12 months.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Hi Friends,

Lets look at the Global Markets which are Ready for a Long Term Trend Change.

DJIA

DJIA

As mentioned in my previous post DJIA seems to be in Expanding Pattern. The Rally from 2009 Lows looks a Corrective Rally and not a Directional move or Impulse.

With Bearish Engulfing monthly close on DJIA the Rally in Intermediate Degree (Y) finally seem to have over near 16600. Break below 15500 indicating medium term trend change. And break below 13900 will invite a huge downside back to 2009 Lows near 6000.


DAX
 

DAX

As mentioned in my previous post Germany DAX seems to be in huge sideways pattern since 2000. Currently it seems to be in Cycle Degree Wave 'D'. With Z underway inside(Y).

DAX seem to have completed Z near 9800. Close below 8800 will be Indication of a next leg downward in Cycle Degree 'E' Wave which could take the Index towards 5000.


FTSE 100

 

FTSE100

As mentioned in my previous post FTSE 100 seems to be in huge sideways pattern since 2000. Currently it seem to have completed Cycle Degree Wave 'D' With Intermediate Degree (Y) near 6870. 

Close below 6400 will be confirmation of a next leg downward in Cycle Degree 'E' Wave which could take the Index towards 3800.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY - LONG TERM EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

NIFTY

In my previous post I mentioned that the fall from 6415-6130 seems to be 1st leg of the Down Trend. However, Bulls protected 6130 and Nifty bounced back to 6356. This move has taken more time than expected. Generally Diagonals are retraced in 1/3rd or 1/2 time. Hence, the rise from 5118-6415 may not be a Diagonal but a Zigzag. Where C leg from 5700 is forming an Ending Diagonal. And Nifty seems to be in 'e' of C.

Currently it's not clear whether 'e' truncated at 6356 or still running. Until Nifty holds 6190 there is a possibility of one more high towards 6486 in 'e' of C of the Final (Z) leg from 5118. Break below 6190 may be indication of 'e' truncation and start of the Down Trend. And break below 6139 would further confirm the downside. Once the Down Trend is confirmed I'm looking for target of 5700-5100 and lower in next 3-4 months.

NIFTY - LONG TERM

Since the structure of Diagonal is almost invalid now, the alternate Bullish structure is also getting invalid. Hence, I would stick to my Long Term Bearish Views. Nifty is in a Sideways Bear Market since 2008. And it is likely to continue the Bear Run till Early 2015. According to it's Long Term Cycle Nifty may drop as low as 3600 in a year ahead.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.