TATA MOTORS BACK IN BEAR

Hi Friends,

Tata Motors is back in Bear..

The sad part is people are recognizing it almost a month later..

I had posted my wave count of Expanded Flat in Tata Motors 2 months back when it was around 298.. Now this Flat has started showing its effect.

You can check my earlier wave count here.


http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/03/tata-motors-elliot-wave-analysis.html


Tata Motors has long way to go to 176-140 or even 125..

I had posted the above view earlier when the stock was trading at sky high levels..

Check this revised Wave-count below.:-

TATA MOTORS

Now we have got the initial confirmation for the lower targets. Next confirmation will come after the Relief Rally..

TATA MOTORS

Currently Tata Motors has Support at 220-230. And it may start giving Pull Back Rally after testing 220-230 area.. The maximum Pull Back can be expected around 260-270 zone.. Failure to cross 260-270 will confirm the next Blood Bath on the stock.


Lets wait & watch.


Thanks & regards,

Harsh Dixit.

IS DJIA SHOOTING UP to 13k?

Hi Friends,


Its been talked lot about Greece & European Crisis. There is too much of Pessimism in Equity Markets Across the Globe.. Most Of the Global Equity Indices are at Make or Break levels. The Break below the threshold levels will turn in a Panic Crash in Equities Across the Globe.


But the Logical thinking say's Its better to be Greedy when Everyone is Fearful.. Dow Jones is at such Inflation Point & its logical to be Greedy at current levels.

DOW JONES

Today DJIA Seem to have completed its 4th wave  and it may start heading up in 5th wave towards 13k or higher to 13400.. The said Wave Count will hold True until DJIA is Above 12285. But a move below 12285 will Invalidate the Wave Count & we may then need to look for Other possibilities.


But As of Now I'm bit Positive on All Global Markets & betting for 10+% move within a month.


DJIA is most likely go little higher above the previous top and make New High & Trap the Bulls but the S&P 500 Index may not make New High & reach 1391-1400..


As per my preferred Wave count its final Shoot Up on DJIA before the Crash in July & August. This Wave Count will hold true till DJIAs above 12285.




So lets Wait & Watch..




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY AT MAKE OR BREAK

Hi Friends,

Since the beginning of May Nifty has been sliding down in a channel and there is no respite for Bulls. As expected May is Turning Deep Frying Pan for the Bulls. But now that Falling Channel has Finally been broken out and Nifty gave a Positive close last Friday. Generally Friday is Bearish; but is this Bullish Friday after so long a Sign of Reversal? Is it Time to take Revenge & Fry Bears?

NIFTY DAILY

Well As per Gann & Astro Reversals take place during 18th to 22nd May. Wave Count wise the Corrective Leg finally seem to be over and Nifty seem to have Finally Bottomed out at 4788. But we must wait for a clear Impulse move up & Faster Retracement of this Down Fall. So we need a closing above 4930 & more importantly decisive break above 5040.

Lets look at the Weekly Chart. Nifty is taking support of trend-line joining the 2008 lows and Dec 2011 lows. So Nifty is at Make or Break level. If Nifty manages to hold on to this Support & takes U-turn then Bulls May Enjoy till June end. But if it breaks below this Support and most importantly below 4770 (78.6% of the Jan-Feb Rally) Hell Awaits the Bulls. If Nifty breaks decisively below 4770, one must be ready for Flash Crash to 4000 or 3800 levels..

NIFTY WEKLY

Currently I don't see such possibilities and I'm a bit positive about the Market. Well as off now its bit early to say that Nifty has Bottomed at 4788. But once it gives a clear Impulse move up with Faster Retracement and breaks above 5040 a straight melt up to 5280 can be expected.  Above 5280 Bulls can Expect 5385-5435. But I won't be surprised to see No. such as 5550 or even 5755..

Wave Count wise Nifty seem to have completed its correction in B leg of the larger D and it may move up in C leg of D & achieve the above mentioned targets.

But as of now we need to wait & watch how this pattern unfolds.

I'm positive until Nifty is above 4770.. And will try for the above mentioned Bullish possibilities. But below 4770 I may reconsider & reconcile my Wave Labeling.

So lets Wait & Watch....

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY ROCKET GET SET GO..

Hi Friends,


In my earlier post I was talking about 5555.. But Since the Market has now Invalidated that Wave Count we must look at some other possibilities. Though the Market has invalidated the earlier count there is nothing to worry about.. Though Nifty may not touch the High Fives 5555.. Still a 10+% move from the current levels is expected to come within next 10-15 days.


There are lot of negative News flowing in the Market regarding IIP nos, Inflation, Euro Crisis & Greek Default and blah blah blah... But This is the Best time to accumulate stocks for a 10+% move from current levels.

NIFTY ENDING DIAGONAL

 Lets 1st look at this Intra-day chart of Nifty. We can clearly see this Falling Wedge formation which is a kind of Reversal Pattern. Also we can see that tough Price is making lower lows RSI is Diverging and making higher lows. We might see a Final Dip to 4863 towards the E leg of this Falling Wedge or Ending Diagonal in Wave 5 of c of the b of the Larger "B". Once Nifty breaks above this Falling Wedge we may witness a clear trend reversal which may come very fast. Generally the Ending Diagonal signals a Dramatic Reversal ahead.

NIFTY

Now lets look at this Daily chart of Nifty. Earlier I assumed that Wave B of this Final leg of Complex corrective was over and currently Nifty is in Final C leg. But the Mode of this fall which is not Impulse has forced me to reconsider and reconcile my Wave Count. So Currently I would like to consider the low of 4531 in Dec as A and currently Nifty is in B leg. Within B which is a 3 wave pattern Nifty just  finished a & b legs and now the impending c would take Nifty higher to 5461. This assumption holds true until Nifty doesn't break below 4830 before the Rally or it doesn't moves beyond 5730. Else I would reconsider my Wave Count.


So Currently I'm looking at 4863 as max decline from where Nifty will start it's Journey towards 5461..




Lets wait & watch....




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.

NIFTY TO TOUCH HIGH FIVES.. 5555

Hi Friends,

Today Nifty respected both the supports very well at 4989 & 5070 and closed above the Falling Wedge support of 5070. Also as per Gann 6th May is Bullish Reversal Day and Nifty has managed to give a Bullish Reversal by giving Engulfing Bull Candlestick formation.

NIFTY

Wave Count wise nothing has changed. Nifty is forming a Leading Diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) or (ABCDE) in Wave 1 of Final C. And it might be still in c leg of the E leg of the Leading Diagonal. once this E leg gets over a clear directional move in wave 2 up will be followed which has approximate tgt of 5555.

For next two sessions Market is expected to remain range-bound, but any dip to 5030 is a good buy opportunity with stop-loss of 4955 for a target of 5555. But below 4955 I would give up dreaming for 5555. Currently I'm Bullish and its good time to go stock specific buying and accumulating it on dips with proper stop-loss. 

Below is the List of some of my favorite stocks and the respective targets thereof:-

1. AXIS Bank:- sl 965 tgt 1140 - 1225 

2. Bajaj Auto:- sl 1460 tgt 1655 - 1760

3. BHEL:-  sl 208 tgt 265- 284

4. Hindalco:- sl 110 tgt 133-144

5. L&T:- sl 1110  tgt 1350- 1450

6. Maruti:- sl 1260 tgt 1400-1450

7. Sterlite Ind:- sl 98 tgt 112-118

8. Tata Steel:- sl 420 tgt 480-500

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

WHAT'S IN STORE FOR MAY?

Hi Friends,


Its been quite long Nifty has been moving in the tight range and the range is getting smaller as the time passes. But now Nifty is at make or break point. As the Summer Heat gets on with MAY Nifty is likely to break this directionless range and give a definite directional move on either side. So we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious move. As the Summer Heat gets on one Camp will be Deeply Fried this MAY...

NIFTY MONTHLY DOJI

 Lets 1st look at this monthly chart of Nifty. After the good start in Jan with Engulfing Bull Nifty moved higher to 5630 in Feb but failed to close above the psychological mark of 5400. In Feb we can witness Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star kind Candlestick pattern with Highest ever Volume signalling possible Trend Reversal. And in March and April we can see the Doji Candlestick pattern with declining volumes indicating indecision. March and April months have lower consecutive closes compared to Feb signalling weakness. April month witnessed lowest ever volumes. So on the monthly charts we can see possible Trend Reversal but need confirmation by closing  below the lows.

NIFTY HNS

If we observe the weekly chart over the last three years we can see this Head & Shoulder formation which is still valid as Nifty just kissed the Neckline in Feb and started turning down. So there is still risk of New Low on Nifty. For which we need confirmation below 4936 (0.618) of the Jan-Feb Rally and further below 4764 (0.786) of the Rally.

USD/INR

Further if we observe this USD/INR chart which has resumed its Bull Trend and crossed above the (0.618) of the Fall of Dec-Feb. So either of Nifty or USD/INR shall surrender. both cannot remain in Bull Trend.


However on the other hand we can also see the Bullish Flag or Pennant formation on the weekly chart of the Nifty. But we still need a clear breakout of this range to ride on the Rally if any. So above 5330 I will aim for 5600 initially and if it crosses 5630 I will then aim for much higher target near 5950.

NIFTY FLAG/PENNANT

So once Nifty Breaks on either side we must be ready to ride this Fast & Furious Move. Currently I have Bearish bias but I'm not married to my views. If Nifty crosses 5330 I will be Bullish for 5600. And if it crosses 5630 I will aim for 5950. On the other hand I will add more shorts below 5080 and aim for 4989-4838-4764.. And if it breaks 4764 I will aim for New Low on Nifty around 4245.


So be Ready to Ride this Fast & Furious Move on either side.




Thanks & Regards,


Harsh Dixit.