16 November 2012

NIFTY - SETTING BASE FOR YEAR END RALLY

Hi Friends,
NIFTY

 In last post I had mentioned about Diwali Rally to 6040. Though Nifty initially broke above the consolidation channel, it could not sustain & fell back sharply. So Nifty is still in 4th Wave which might get over in a day or two.

 As suggested by EWT Corrective Waves generally take more time than Motives. Wave 3 Took 20 Days. Hence, Wave 4 shall consume more than 20 Days. Wave 4 has so far consumed 28 Days. And it might consume 1 or 2 days more to complete.

Wave 2 was Running Correction & Wave 4 looks to be a Flat. Wave 2 Retraced up-to 50% which is a Deep Correction. Hence, Wave 4 shall be a Shallow Correction & Retrace up-to 38.2%. A Flat represents a Shallow Correction. More of Time wise Correction than Price. And often witnessed in Wave 4.

 Nifty has Strong Rising Channel Support near 5575 & 38.2% Retracement of Wave 3 is at 5585. Hence, Nifty is likely to hold this Support & Ride Higher in 5th Wave to 5944-5976-6040 till Dec last week.

 This view will hold true until Channel Support is held. If Channel Breaks I would look for some alternate Count.

 Currently I remain Bullish for Year End Rally. This Rally might be the last Run up on Nifty & try to Trap most of the Long Term Investors by heading beyond their Imagination. But Investors must use this Rally to Exit Longs.

 Banking, Capital Goods & Metal Sectors will Outperform this Rally. Auto may remain Sideways to Bullish. FMCG & Pharma Sectors seem to have already made a Cycle Top & will give only Corrective Bounce.
So lets wait & watch..
Thanks & regards
Harsh Dixit.
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12 comments:

  1. niftyath.blogspot.com17 November 2012 at 15:12

    Forget friend 6000++
    Check out India VIX...
    it on 52 wk low when nifty trade @ 5700+ level
    i Shorted Future From 5769 Level see Result Now
    that time premium is 35 now only 10

    ReplyDelete
  2. TRENDONOMICS BY HARSH DIIXIT18 November 2012 at 23:33

    Market Bottoms Out on Bad News & Tops Out on Good News.. Be Greedy when Everyone is Fearful & Fearful when Everyone is Greedy.. Most of the times Market Bottoms on Selling Climax when Premium shrinks.. The one we Witnessed on Friday.. Also Check bottom on 26th July. Similar Selling Climax was Witnessed there.. I'm always a Contrarian.. Rather I would say I only follow Charts.. I have habit of bottom picking..

    Well this time I might be Wrong.. But I still feel that 1 last rally to 5900+ is on cards.. I'm Bullish for short term.. But for Long term I'm Mega Bear. I would bet for 3600-3200 once the Final top is done at 5900-6000...

    ReplyDelete
  3. niftyath.blogspot.com19 November 2012 at 12:03

    Thanks,For Replying Sir

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous19 November 2012 at 15:32

    Harsh,
    3600-3200 marks in NIfty.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Meaningless analysis....you just hallucinating.!!!!
    No one analysis is supporting this type hallucination.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TRENDONOMICS BY HARSH DIIXIT25 November 2012 at 20:49

      @ 54degree

      Mind your language Sir.

      If you have counter views put it though charts.

      You don't have any right to call my Analysis Meaningless

      Well Time will tell us what's in store for 2013.

      Just remember that History Repeats..

      A minimum of 1800 points drop for the top is Inevitable.

      But let it 1st make a Top.

      I will post my detailed Analysis for 3600-3200 once I see Final Top in Nifty..



      Delete
    2. Anonymous30 November 2012 at 13:15

      Harsh,
      Elliott wave don't allows such type of analysis that why this is a meaningless..!!! Such type hallucination only creates by novice analyst.
      Just looks at those highly qualified EW analyst. Robert R Prechter or Glenn Nelly, who were never comments such type of unrealistic analysis.
      Still no indications of any top out and you blowing own trumpet about 3600-3200.
      Six months back @May-June, you even not accepting 5700 level and now you making analysis of 6170...
      You are not doing analysis, but you want to just create big banner like ...3600-3200 marks in NIFTY. This is very unfortunate for EW analysis.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    3. Harsh Dixit4 December 2012 at 12:40

      54 Degree,

      Well yes we have Not yet Topped out & so currently its not worth talking abt 3600-3200. Well its just a possibility. But its as per EW.

      Robert Prechter is Talking abt Dow Sub 4k since 2000.

      Well And 6 months back I was Bullish for min 5350 to 5850.

      1. My 1st buy on 4800 for 5350-5400.

      http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/06/will-nifty-repeat-history.html

      2.Next Buy for 5650+
      http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/07/is-nifty-heading-to-5654.html

      3. Next buy at 5250 for 5700+

      http://trend-o-nomics.blogspot.in/2012/09/nifty-ready-to-zoom.html

      Just Check where my 5th wave Ends..

      Clearly showing move beyond 5850-5900.

      Delete
  5. Santy27 November 2012 at 16:55

    I wish I have Nifty data in my MT4. But by seeing the above chart,I agree with Harsh's Elliott Wave analysis. Unless any unforeseen event happens in USA or European counties market seems to correct wave 4 and will go higher to make wave 5 of Wave 3. Which means it is expected to see nifty going above 6250 to complete wave 5. Price will be supported by both up channels, 127% Fibonacci expansion and a up pitchfork ( if you draw a pitchfork using points 2,3 and 4 it points to a steep up bias for Nifty)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TRENDONOMICS BY HARSH DIIXIT28 November 2012 at 21:08

      Hi Santy,

      This is not a 3rd Wave Advance. The Rally from June low of 4770 lacks speed & can be classified as 'c' wave of larger corrective.

      The entire 2012 move is of Corrective nature & not an Impulse.On short term Nifty is in 5th of 'c' which might take it to 6040 or max 6170 by Dec End. After this a dramatic turnaround is expected & entire 2013 will be a down-trending Market of Impulsive Nature.

      Thanks & Regards,

      Harsh Dixit.

      Delete
  6. Santy3 December 2012 at 03:06

    Hmm, don't know about 2013 yet. But as I said, this EW5 will take Nifty to 6240 level. Well you might see lots of profit taking before that and hence I would exit my positions before 6190.

    ReplyDelete
  7. niftyath.blogspot.com7 December 2012 at 15:52

    Sir, April 2011 Top is 5944 Today Made High 5949
    Can Reversal From Here ??
    And What It's Confirmation if We Assume 5949 Is High Of DEC 12

    ReplyDelete
  8. Unknown27 April 2013 at 19:00

    are we in 5th wave progress in c 5 or B wave of corrctive trend from 6110-5480.

    ReplyDelete

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